Cristiano Ronaldo enters the 2026 World Cup at age 41 after recovering from a recent hamstring issue that sidelined him from Portugal’s final warm-ups, with coach Roberto Martínez confirming his fitness and central role based on current form rather than longevity. Portugal opens against DR Congo on June 17 in a group also featuring Uzbekistan and Colombia, a path that favors advancement but rarely generates multiple penalty opportunities across the tournament. Historical World Cup data shows Ronaldo converting spot kicks when awarded, yet teams typically receive few such calls even in deep runs, and Portugal’s style plus VAR scrutiny limit volume. The 69% implied probability on “No” for two or more penalties reflects trader consensus on these constraints—age-related minutes management, modest expected set-piece volume, and the statistical rarity of sustained penalty chances—while acknowledging Ronaldo remains the designated taker if opportunities arise.