Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16%, with England and Portugal both near 11%, reflecting a tightly bunched field driven by comparable squad depth and recent results across Europe's elite. Spain's status stems from their Euro 2024 title and integration of young talent like Lamine Yamal, while France benefits from a proven core and runners-up finish in 2022. England’s consistent qualification and Portugal’s attacking options keep them competitive, as do Argentina and Brazil despite South American qualifying challenges. The expanded 48-team format and draw separating top seeds until late stages further sustain uncertainty, with no single side demonstrating decisive superiority entering the June 11 kickoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSpagna 17.0%
Francia 16.1%
Inghilterra 10.8%
Portogallo 10.8%
$1,964,935,433 Vol.
$1,964,935,433 Vol.
Spagna
17%
Francia
16%
Inghilterra
11%
Portogallo
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasile
9%
Germania
5%
Paesi Bassi
4%
Norvegia
2%
Belgio
2%
Colombia
2%
Giappone
2%
Marocco
2%
Messico
1%
Svizzera
1%
Stati Uniti
1%
Turchia
1%
Uruguay
1%
Ecuador
1%
Croazia
1%
Senegal
1%
Costa d'Avorio
<1%
Austria
<1%
Canada
<1%
Svezia
<1%
Corea del Sud
<1%
Scozia
<1%
Egitto
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Erzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
<1%
Cechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nuova Zelanda
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Giordania
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Sudafrica
<1%
Capo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabia Saudita
<1%
Spagna 17.0%
Francia 16.1%
Inghilterra 10.8%
Portogallo 10.8%
$1,964,935,433 Vol.
$1,964,935,433 Vol.
Spagna
17%
Francia
16%
Inghilterra
11%
Portogallo
11%
Argentina
9%
Brasile
9%
Germania
5%
Paesi Bassi
4%
Norvegia
2%
Belgio
2%
Colombia
2%
Giappone
2%
Marocco
2%
Messico
1%
Svizzera
1%
Stati Uniti
1%
Turchia
1%
Uruguay
1%
Ecuador
1%
Croazia
1%
Senegal
1%
Costa d'Avorio
<1%
Austria
<1%
Canada
<1%
Svezia
<1%
Corea del Sud
<1%
Scozia
<1%
Egitto
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Erzegovina
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Repubblica Democratica del Congo
<1%
Cechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
Nuova Zelanda
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Giordania
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
Sudafrica
<1%
Capo Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Arabia Saudita
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain leads the 2026 World Cup winner market at 17% implied probability, narrowly ahead of France at 16%, with England and Portugal both near 11%, reflecting a tightly bunched field driven by comparable squad depth and recent results across Europe's elite. Spain's status stems from their Euro 2024 title and integration of young talent like Lamine Yamal, while France benefits from a proven core and runners-up finish in 2022. England’s consistent qualification and Portugal’s attacking options keep them competitive, as do Argentina and Brazil despite South American qualifying challenges. The expanded 48-team format and draw separating top seeds until late stages further sustain uncertainty, with no single side demonstrating decisive superiority entering the June 11 kickoff.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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