Kimi Antonelli’s commanding 123-point lead after his ninth victory of the 2026 season at the United States Grand Prix has produced the overwhelming trader consensus reflected in current pricing. The 20-year-old Mercedes driver extended his advantage to 365 points with five rounds remaining, needing just two points in Mexico City to clinch the title regardless of results for George Russell or Lewis Hamilton. Antonelli’s consistent pace, pole-to-win dominance, and Mercedes team strategy have created a near-insurmountable gap over Russell (242 points) and Hamilton (241 points). While a series of non-finishes for Antonelli combined with maximum hauls for his closest rivals could theoretically keep the championship alive, the scale of the deficit and Antonelli’s recent form make such outcomes highly improbable.
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