世界の選挙オッズ

Unlike bookmaker-set fixed-odds prices, Polymarket's election odds are market-driven. Each contract is a simple yes/no question tied to an official, verifiable election winner. Examples include which party wins a battleground state like Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, or Nevada. Or whether a Democratic Party figure such as Gavin Newsom or Pete Buttigieg secures a future nomination, or a Republican Party figure such as JD Vance, Ron DeSantis, or Secretary of State Marco Rubio becomes the next GOP standard-bearer. Other markets can cover closely watched races, such as contests in New York where traders price which candidate, party, or ballot outcome will prevail. Traders buy and sell outcome shares priced between 0 and 100 cents. The market price reflects the implied probability at that moment. Prices can move fast when major news breaks, such as a snap election being called, a candidate withdrawing, or a no-confidence vote toppling a sitting prime minister.

This setup is often called the "wisdom of crowds" with skin in the game. Traders with unhedged positions have money on the line, so they’re motivated to be right. Obvious mispricing tends to draw opposing trades, though liquidity, trader composition, and market limits can affect how fast prices correct. That self-correcting dynamic is what gives election markets their informational edge.

Traditional polls remain a valuable input, but they have built-in limits. Polls are snapshots, often several days old by the time they’re published. They also rely on sampling, weighting, and assumptions about likely voters and turnout that can introduce error. Recent U.S. presidential election cycles show how polling error can shape expectations in close Electoral College contests. In 2024, public polls again underestimated Donald Trump nationally and across major battleground states. States such as Iowa and New Jersey saw bigger polling misses too, with Trump outperforming final polling averages.

Polymarket's election prediction markets can address several of these weaknesses. First, markets run continuously rather than in periodic snapshots. Prices update as traders react to new polls, endorsements, court rulings, or diplomatic developments. Second, markets can aggregate more than polling data alone. Participants may weigh base rates, partisan lean, ground-level reporting, and historical precedent, such as the long-running Republican presidential lean of West Virginia or the Democratic presidential lean of New York. Third, traders are financially accountable. A trader who is wrong loses money. That incentive structure can reward accuracy and punish wishful thinking, especially in liquid markets.

This page brings together election odds from across the world. Coverage spans presidential elections, parliamentary contests, prime ministerial transitions, primaries, runoffs, and coalition outcomes. Markets can cover many electoral systems, from first-past-the-post races like a UK general election to proportional representation contests to multi-round runoffs to the U.S. midterms. In the midterms, every House district, roughly one-third of Senate seats, and most governorships, from swing states to traditional GOP strongholds, can reshape control of government. Whatever the format, the underlying logic is similar: prices reflect market-implied probabilities shaped by real trading activity.

For international observers, this global view is especially useful. It allows side-by-side comparison of how traders are pricing election-related uncertainty across countries. That includes a tight parliamentary majority in one country, the frontrunner in a presidential runoff in another, or the likely election winner in a closely watched regional contest. When election predictions diverge meaningfully from local polling aggregators, that gap itself can be informative.

You don’t need to trade to benefit from election odds. Visitors can use Polymarket as a live data source, watching probabilities shift in response to debates, endorsements, and breaking headlines. Journalists, analysts, and researchers can cite these markets as timestamped, capital-weighted indicators of trader sentiment. Prices, volume, trades, and other market data are all available for review.

Used thoughtfully, Polymarket's election predictions can offer a fast, transparent, market-driven view of how traders are pricing political and election outcomes in real time.