Recent polling trends have positioned the Labour Party as the narrow frontrunner in trader assessments for the November 2026 New Zealand general election. Multiple April and May surveys show Labour pulling ahead of National on the party vote, driven by gains among key voter blocs amid questions over Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's leadership and the stability of the National-ACT-NZ First coalition. The coalition maintains a modest overall lead in aggregated forecasts, yet individual polls indicate Labour, supported by potential Green and Te Pāti Māori alignments, could secure the largest share of seats. Scheduled events such as the budget and ongoing policy debates on immigration and education continue to influence shifts in these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日New Zealand legislative election winner?
New Zealand legislative election winner?
Labour Party 56%
National Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
新規
新規
2026/11/07
National Party
42%
Labour Party
56%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
New Zealand First Party
1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Labour Party 56%
National Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
新規
新規
2026/11/07
National Party
$1,057 Vol.
42%
Labour Party
$1,108 Vol.
56%
Green Party
$329 Vol.
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$339 Vol.
<1%
New Zealand First Party
$319 Vol.
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$314 Vol.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling trends have positioned the Labour Party as the narrow frontrunner in trader assessments for the November 2026 New Zealand general election. Multiple April and May surveys show Labour pulling ahead of National on the party vote, driven by gains among key voter blocs amid questions over Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's leadership and the stability of the National-ACT-NZ First coalition. The coalition maintains a modest overall lead in aggregated forecasts, yet individual polls indicate Labour, supported by potential Green and Te Pāti Māori alignments, could secure the largest share of seats. Scheduled events such as the budget and ongoing policy debates on immigration and education continue to influence shifts in these probabilities.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
マーケット開始日： Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ET
音量
$3,464終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling trends have positioned the Labour Party as the narrow frontrunner in trader assessments for the November 2026 New Zealand general election. Multiple April and May surveys show Labour pulling ahead of National on the party vote, driven by gains among key voter blocs amid questions over Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's leadership and the stability of the National-ACT-NZ First coalition. The coalition maintains a modest overall lead in aggregated forecasts, yet individual polls indicate Labour, supported by potential Green and Te Pāti Māori alignments, could secure the largest share of seats. Scheduled events such as the budget and ongoing policy debates on immigration and education continue to influence shifts in these probabilities.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party list votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed name appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
音量
$3,464終了日
2026/11/07マーケット開始日
Apr 29, 2026, 7:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling trends have positioned the Labour Party as the narrow frontrunner in trader assessments for the November 2026 New Zealand general election. Multiple April and May surveys show Labour pulling ahead of National on the party vote, driven by gains among key voter blocs amid questions over Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's leadership and the stability of the National-ACT-NZ First coalition. The coalition maintains a modest overall lead in aggregated forecasts, yet individual polls indicate Labour, supported by potential Green and Te Pāti Māori alignments, could secure the largest share of seats. Scheduled events such as the budget and ongoing policy debates on immigration and education continue to influence shifts in these probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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