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icon for 2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？
政治·米国選挙

2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？

icon for 2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？
政治·米国選挙

2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？

11月 3

11月 3

Polymarket

$6,198,675 Vol.

$6,198,675 Vol.

icon for 民主党

民主党

$3,338,457 Vol.

79%

icon for 共和党

共和党

$2,860,218 Vol.

23%

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 78.5% to capture House control after the November 2026 midterms, reflecting sustained leads in generic ballot polling averages—often 5–10 points ahead—and historical patterns where the president's party loses an average of 26 seats. Republicans hold a slim 220–215 majority from 2024 but defend numerous swing districts amid vulnerabilities from internal House dysfunction, including recent gridlock on funding bills and farm legislation. A May 3 Post-ABC-Ipsos poll showed President Trump's disapproval reaching new highs, eroding GOP support among independents (Dems leading 52–32%), while billionaire investor Ken Griffin deemed a Democratic takeover "almost a certainty" on May 5. Upcoming primaries could shift dynamics in battlegrounds.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
音量
$6,198,675
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Democrats at 78.5% to capture House control after the November 2026 midterms, reflecting sustained leads in generic ballot polling averages—often 5–10 points ahead—and historical patterns where the president's party loses an average of 26 seats. Republicans hold a slim 220–215 majority from 2024 but defend numerous swing districts amid vulnerabilities from internal House dysfunction, including recent gridlock on funding bills and farm legislation. A May 3 Post-ABC-Ipsos poll showed President Trump's disapproval reaching new highs, eroding GOP support among independents (Dems leading 52–32%), while billionaire investor Ken Griffin deemed a Democratic takeover "almost a certainty" on May 5. Upcoming primaries could shift dynamics in battlegrounds.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
音量
$6,198,675
終了日
2026/11/03
マーケット開始日
Jul 11, 2025, 3:48 PM ET

リゾルバー

0x2F5e3684c...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

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よくある質問

「2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「民主党」で79%、次いで「共和党」が23%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、79¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に79%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？」は$6.2 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Jul 11, 2025のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？」の現在のフロントランナーは「民主党」で79%であり、市場がこの結果に79%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「共和党」で23%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「2026年に下院を制する政党はどれですか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。