**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$31,386 Vol.
$31,386 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
83%
民主党
16%
$31,386 Vol.
$31,386 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$6,757 Vol.
83%
民主党
$24,629 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
音量
$31,386終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$31,386終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican Nick Begich III holds a strong advantage in Alaska’s at-large House race.** As the incumbent who flipped the seat from Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024, Begich benefits from Alaska’s Republican tilt and the state’s top-four primary and ranked-choice general election system. The Democratic side weakened substantially when prominent challenger Matt Schultz withdrew in July 2026 and endorsed independent Bill Hill, leaving Hill as the leading alternative. Recent polling shows Begich ahead of Hill by margins ranging from 4 to 18 points, consistent with the 82.5% Republican implied probability on Polymarket. The August 18 primary is imminent, after which the November 3 general will determine the winner under ranked-choice voting. No major late shifts have altered the incumbent’s position.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問