Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured his party's nomination uncontested in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15, and nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established support in a district that has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability. Limited Democratic investment or polling activity further reinforces the positioning. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, significant health event, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$25,588 Vol.
$25,588 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
95%
民主党
4%
$25,588 Vol.
$25,588 Vol.
2026/11/03
共和党
$10,146 Vol.
95%
民主党
$15,442 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured his party's nomination uncontested in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15, and nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established support in a district that has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability. Limited Democratic investment or polling activity further reinforces the positioning. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, significant health event, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$25,588終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured his party's nomination uncontested in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15, and nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established support in a district that has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability. Limited Democratic investment or polling activity further reinforces the positioning. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, significant health event, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$25,588終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Paul Gosar secured his party's nomination uncontested in the July 2026 primary for Arizona's 9th congressional district, facing Democrat Danielle Sterbinsky in the November general election. The seat carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+15, and nonpartisan analysts rate the race Solid or Safe Republican. This structural advantage, combined with the incumbent's established support in a district that has consistently favored GOP candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus reflected in the 94.5% Republican probability. Limited Democratic investment or polling activity further reinforces the positioning. Late developments such as a major candidate scandal, significant health event, or an unforeseen national midterm wave could still narrow the margin, though such shifts remain uncommon in districts with this partisan baseline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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