Recent polling averages showing Democrat James Talarico holding narrow leads or ties against Republican Ken Paxton have kept the Texas Senate race competitive, with trader consensus reflected in the near-even market pricing. Multiple surveys from July and early August indicate Talarico ahead by 2–5 points among likely voters, driven by strong performance with moderates and independents alongside Paxton's weaker support among some Republicans. Talarico's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $68 million compared to Paxton's roughly $9 million as of July, has enabled heavier advertising and ground efforts. Paxton's May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn solidified his nomination but highlighted internal party divisions. Developments such as upcoming debates, further polling shifts, turnout in key suburban and Hispanic areas, or new information on candidates' records could widen the gap before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$754,446 Vol.
$754,446 Vol.
2026/11/03
ジェームズ・タラリコ（民主党）
52%
ケン・パクストン（共和党）
48%
$754,446 Vol.
$754,446 Vol.
2026/11/03
ジェームズ・タラリコ（民主党）
$360,858 Vol.
52%
ケン・パクストン（共和党）
$393,588 Vol.
48%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages showing Democrat James Talarico holding narrow leads or ties against Republican Ken Paxton have kept the Texas Senate race competitive, with trader consensus reflected in the near-even market pricing. Multiple surveys from July and early August indicate Talarico ahead by 2–5 points among likely voters, driven by strong performance with moderates and independents alongside Paxton's weaker support among some Republicans. Talarico's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $68 million compared to Paxton's roughly $9 million as of July, has enabled heavier advertising and ground efforts. Paxton's May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn solidified his nomination but highlighted internal party divisions. Developments such as upcoming debates, further polling shifts, turnout in key suburban and Hispanic areas, or new information on candidates' records could widen the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ET
音量
$754,446終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Recent polling averages showing Democrat James Talarico holding narrow leads or ties against Republican Ken Paxton have kept the Texas Senate race competitive, with trader consensus reflected in the near-even market pricing. Multiple surveys from July and early August indicate Talarico ahead by 2–5 points among likely voters, driven by strong performance with moderates and independents alongside Paxton's weaker support among some Republicans. Talarico's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $68 million compared to Paxton's roughly $9 million as of July, has enabled heavier advertising and ground efforts. Paxton's May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn solidified his nomination but highlighted internal party divisions. Developments such as upcoming debates, further polling shifts, turnout in key suburban and Hispanic areas, or new information on candidates' records could widen the gap before November.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$754,446終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 4:57 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages showing Democrat James Talarico holding narrow leads or ties against Republican Ken Paxton have kept the Texas Senate race competitive, with trader consensus reflected in the near-even market pricing. Multiple surveys from July and early August indicate Talarico ahead by 2–5 points among likely voters, driven by strong performance with moderates and independents alongside Paxton's weaker support among some Republicans. Talarico's substantial fundraising advantage, exceeding $68 million compared to Paxton's roughly $9 million as of July, has enabled heavier advertising and ground efforts. Paxton's May primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn solidified his nomination but highlighted internal party divisions. Developments such as upcoming debates, further polling shifts, turnout in key suburban and Hispanic areas, or new information on candidates' records could widen the gap before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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