Gadi Eisenkot holds the highest implied probability in the market because recent polling averages place his Yashar party as the largest or near-largest in the Knesset ahead of the October 27 election, positioning him to lead a potential opposition coalition if the right-religious bloc falls short of 61 seats. Multiple late-September surveys show Yashar and Likud trading narrow leads around 21–23 seats each, with the Netanyahu-aligned bloc and Zionist opposition often separated by just a few mandates and neither side assured of a majority. Netanyahu’s 32.5% reflects his durable base within Likud and security-focused voters despite ongoing accountability questions tied to October 2023 events, while Naftali Bennett’s lower share aligns with his party’s more modest projected seat totals and coalition constraints. Traders appear to weigh Eisenkot’s military record and cross-bloc appeal against Netanyahu’s incumbency advantages and the fragmented arithmetic that could still produce rotation deals or extended negotiations after the vote.
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