This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government faces potential collapse following a rift with ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties over mandatory military service exemptions, paralyzing legislative action as of May 13. Haredi lawmakers have withdrawn support, dissolving Netanyahu's slim Knesset majority and prompting threats of a dissolution vote next week that could trigger snap elections before the scheduled October 27 deadline. Opposition figures, including former PM Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and others, are forming alliances aiming for 61 seats to unseat him amid ongoing Gaza war pressures and corruption trials. Traders watch for no-confidence motions or coalition defections as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government faces potential collapse following a rift with ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties over mandatory military service exemptions, paralyzing legislative action as of May 13. Haredi lawmakers have withdrawn support, dissolving Netanyahu's slim Knesset majority and prompting threats of a dissolution vote next week that could trigger snap elections before the scheduled October 27 deadline. Opposition figures, including former PM Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and others, are forming alliances aiming for 61 seats to unseat him amid ongoing Gaza war pressures and corruption trials. Traders watch for no-confidence motions or coalition defections as key catalysts.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 52%1%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s regional position and demonstrating his ongoing governance role. This positive economic development likely bolstered market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
May 7 2026
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu’s government launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key issue delaying the next ceasefire phase. This operation underscored Netanyahu’s active leadership during wartime, supporting market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Israeli President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt his ongoing corruption trial, signaling continued legal and political challenges for Netanyahu but no immediate resignation. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Mar 19 2026
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Israel launched an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, escalating the conflict with Iran and causing a divergence in rhetoric between Netanyahu and Trump. This heightened regional tensions and political risks but Netanyahu remained in office, affecting market sentiment on his tenure.
Jan 24 2026
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 plunges to 46%18%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, which involved complex political and security challenges. This increased pressure on Netanyahu but did not lead to resignation, contributing to market uncertainty and a dip in short-term resignation probabilities.
Dec 24 2025
Netanyahu signals no rush to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase amid hostage remains issue
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Netanyahu indicated reluctance to proceed with the next ceasefire phase until the remains of the last hostage are returned, tempering expectations of political change and causing a slight market correction downward from the peak probability.
Nov 22 2025
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, increasing political pressure on him. This event caused a rise in market probability as it suggested potential political shifts that could affect Netanyahu's position by year-end.
Oct 15 2025
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and signaling political stability under his leadership, which temporarily increased market confidence in his tenure lasting through the year-end.
Aug 13 2025
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida to discuss Iran and Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu held talks with Trump focusing on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing his active political role and diminishing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Aug 9 2025
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including demilitarization and reconstruction, highlighting ongoing political engagement and Netanyahu’s leadership role, which likely lowered resignation odds.
Jul 25 2025
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, a key part of the Gaza ceasefire plan, signaling his continued active role in regional diplomacy and governance, reducing expectations of resignation by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government faces potential collapse following a rift with ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties over mandatory military service exemptions, paralyzing legislative action as of May 13. Haredi lawmakers have withdrawn support, dissolving Netanyahu's slim Knesset majority and prompting threats of a dissolution vote next week that could trigger snap elections before the scheduled October 27 deadline. Opposition figures, including former PM Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and others, are forming alliances aiming for 61 seats to unseat him amid ongoing Gaza war pressures and corruption trials. Traders watch for no-confidence motions or coalition defections as key catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government faces potential collapse following a rift with ultra-Orthodox (Haredi) parties over mandatory military service exemptions, paralyzing legislative action as of May 13. Haredi lawmakers have withdrawn support, dissolving Netanyahu's slim Knesset majority and prompting threats of a dissolution vote next week that could trigger snap elections before the scheduled October 27 deadline. Opposition figures, including former PM Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, and others, are forming alliances aiming for 61 seats to unseat him amid ongoing Gaza war pressures and corruption trials. Traders watch for no-confidence motions or coalition defections as key catalysts.
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 rises to 52%1%
Netanyahu approved a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel’s regional position and demonstrating his ongoing governance role. This positive economic development likely bolstered market confidence in his tenure through the end of 2026.
May 7 2026
Israel launches large-scale operation to locate last hostage in Gaza
December 31 jumps to 51%6%
Netanyahu’s government launched a major operation to find the last hostage in Gaza, a key issue delaying the next ceasefire phase. This operation underscored Netanyahu’s active leadership during wartime, supporting market confidence in his continuation as Prime Minister.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli President delays decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt corruption trial
Israeli President Isaac Herzog delayed a decision on Netanyahu’s request to halt his ongoing corruption trial, signaling continued legal and political challenges for Netanyahu but no immediate resignation. This contributed to market uncertainty and a decline in short-term resignation probabilities.
Mar 19 2026
Israel attacks Iranian gas field, causing regional tensions
December 31 drops to 40%10%
Israel launched an attack on Iran’s South Pars gas field, escalating the conflict with Iran and causing a divergence in rhetoric between Netanyahu and Trump. This heightened regional tensions and political risks but Netanyahu remained in office, affecting market sentiment on his tenure.
Jan 24 2026
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 plunges to 46%18%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, which involved complex political and security challenges. This increased pressure on Netanyahu but did not lead to resignation, contributing to market uncertainty and a dip in short-term resignation probabilities.
Dec 24 2025
Netanyahu signals no rush to advance Gaza ceasefire second phase amid hostage remains issue
December 31 dips to 53%3%
Netanyahu indicated reluctance to proceed with the next ceasefire phase until the remains of the last hostage are returned, tempering expectations of political change and causing a slight market correction downward from the peak probability.
Nov 22 2025
US envoys urge Netanyahu to move into Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 jumps to 60%7%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress into the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire, increasing political pressure on him. This event caused a rise in market probability as it suggested potential political shifts that could affect Netanyahu's position by year-end.
Oct 15 2025
Netanyahu approves $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt
December 31 jumps to 62%14%
Netanyahu announced approval of a historic $35 billion natural gas export deal to Egypt, strengthening Israel's regional position and signaling political stability under his leadership, which temporarily increased market confidence in his tenure lasting through the year-end.
Aug 13 2025
Netanyahu meets Trump in Florida to discuss Iran and Gaza
December 31 rises to 47%2%
Netanyahu held talks with Trump focusing on Iran nuclear negotiations and Gaza ceasefire progress, reinforcing his active political role and diminishing market expectations of his resignation by year-end.
Aug 9 2025
US envoys urge Netanyahu to advance Gaza ceasefire’s second phase
December 31 dips to 50%4%
Top U.S. envoys met with Netanyahu urging progress on the Gaza ceasefire’s second phase, including demilitarization and reconstruction, highlighting ongoing political engagement and Netanyahu’s leadership role, which likely lowered resignation odds.
Jul 25 2025
Netanyahu agrees to join Trump’s Board of Peace overseeing Gaza ceasefire
December 31 drops to 53%6%
Netanyahu announced his agreement to join the U.S.-led Board of Peace, a key part of the Gaza ceasefire plan, signaling his continued active role in regional diplomacy and governance, reducing expectations of resignation by year-end.
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