US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated in early August 2026 when the State Department revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in reciprocity for Brazil’s refusal to grant agrément to the US nominee and its denial of visas to two American diplomats. Officials explicitly stated the step did not constitute expulsion, persona non grata status, or a requirement for Viotti to leave the United States, framing it instead as reversible once Brazil approves the US pick. Earlier 2026 frictions, including a police attaché expulsion and new tariffs, produced similar calibrated responses rather than broader expulsions. With the September 30 deadline approaching amid ongoing but contained reciprocity and no announced plans for formal expulsion, traders assign a low probability to the outcome occurring.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
はい
8% 確率
新規
新規
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated in early August 2026 when the State Department revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in reciprocity for Brazil’s refusal to grant agrément to the US nominee and its denial of visas to two American diplomats. Officials explicitly stated the step did not constitute expulsion, persona non grata status, or a requirement for Viotti to leave the United States, framing it instead as reversible once Brazil approves the US pick. Earlier 2026 frictions, including a police attaché expulsion and new tariffs, produced similar calibrated responses rather than broader expulsions. With the September 30 deadline approaching amid ongoing but contained reciprocity and no announced plans for formal expulsion, traders assign a low probability to the outcome occurring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
音量
$1,853終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated in early August 2026 when the State Department revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in reciprocity for Brazil’s refusal to grant agrément to the US nominee and its denial of visas to two American diplomats. Officials explicitly stated the step did not constitute expulsion, persona non grata status, or a requirement for Viotti to leave the United States, framing it instead as reversible once Brazil approves the US pick. Earlier 2026 frictions, including a police attaché expulsion and new tariffs, produced similar calibrated responses rather than broader expulsions. With the September 30 deadline approaching amid ongoing but contained reciprocity and no announced plans for formal expulsion, traders assign a low probability to the outcome occurring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States expels a Brazilian diplomat stationed in the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the United States requiring the Brazilian diplomat to leave the United States, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of a diplomat’s visa or denial of entry to the United States will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$1,853終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Brazil diplomatic tensions escalated in early August 2026 when the State Department revoked Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti’s visa in reciprocity for Brazil’s refusal to grant agrément to the US nominee and its denial of visas to two American diplomats. Officials explicitly stated the step did not constitute expulsion, persona non grata status, or a requirement for Viotti to leave the United States, framing it instead as reversible once Brazil approves the US pick. Earlier 2026 frictions, including a police attaché expulsion and new tariffs, produced similar calibrated responses rather than broader expulsions. With the September 30 deadline approaching amid ongoing but contained reciprocity and no announced plans for formal expulsion, traders assign a low probability to the outcome occurring.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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