Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 18-25, reflecting the managed nature of official accounts that typically issue infrequent, high-level statements rather than daily updates. Recent appointments to senior military and security roles in early August have focused institutional attention on internal consolidation following the 2026 leadership transition, without triggering sustained public messaging campaigns. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz frictions and U.S.-Iran tensions persist but have not produced daily diplomatic or military announcements in the immediate run-up to the period. Historical patterns show low weekly output from the office absent acute escalations or scheduled summits, positioning the under-five bin as the dominant outcome while leaving room for shifts if regional developments accelerate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日<5 60%
5-9 27%
10-14 15%
15-19 1.6%
新規
新規
2026/08/25
<5
60%
5-9
27%
10-14
15%
15-19
2%
20-24
2%
25-29
1%
30-34
1%
35-39
2%
40-44
1%
45-49
1%
50-54
1%
55-59
1%
60+
1%
<5 60%
5-9 27%
10-14 15%
15-19 1.6%
新規
新規
2026/08/25
<5
$221 Vol.
60%
5-9
$215 Vol.
27%
10-14
$10 Vol.
15%
15-19
$5 Vol.
2%
20-24
$5 Vol.
2%
25-29
$5 Vol.
1%
30-34
$5 Vol.
1%
35-39
$5 Vol.
2%
40-44
$10 Vol.
1%
45-49
$10 Vol.
1%
50-54
$5 Vol.
1%
55-59
$5 Vol.
1%
60+
$5 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 18-25, reflecting the managed nature of official accounts that typically issue infrequent, high-level statements rather than daily updates. Recent appointments to senior military and security roles in early August have focused institutional attention on internal consolidation following the 2026 leadership transition, without triggering sustained public messaging campaigns. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz frictions and U.S.-Iran tensions persist but have not produced daily diplomatic or military announcements in the immediate run-up to the period. Historical patterns show low weekly output from the office absent acute escalations or scheduled summits, positioning the under-five bin as the dominant outcome while leaving room for shifts if regional developments accelerate.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
音量
$506終了日
2026/08/25マーケット開始日
Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 18-25, reflecting the managed nature of official accounts that typically issue infrequent, high-level statements rather than daily updates. Recent appointments to senior military and security roles in early August have focused institutional attention on internal consolidation following the 2026 leadership transition, without triggering sustained public messaging campaigns. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz frictions and U.S.-Iran tensions persist but have not produced daily diplomatic or military announcements in the immediate run-up to the period. Historical patterns show low weekly output from the office absent acute escalations or scheduled summits, positioning the under-five bin as the dominant outcome while leaving room for shifts if regional developments accelerate.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Khamenei (@khamenei_ir), posts on X between August 18, 12:00 PM ET and August 25, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies which are recorded on the main feed will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
The resolution source for this market is the "Post Counter" figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
音量
$506終了日
2026/08/25マーケット開始日
Aug 15, 2026, 12:00 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors fewer than five posts by Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on X during August 18-25, reflecting the managed nature of official accounts that typically issue infrequent, high-level statements rather than daily updates. Recent appointments to senior military and security roles in early August have focused institutional attention on internal consolidation following the 2026 leadership transition, without triggering sustained public messaging campaigns. Ongoing Strait of Hormuz frictions and U.S.-Iran tensions persist but have not produced daily diplomatic or military announcements in the immediate run-up to the period. Historical patterns show low weekly output from the office absent acute escalations or scheduled summits, positioning the under-five bin as the dominant outcome while leaving room for shifts if regional developments accelerate.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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