Persistent geopolitical tensions and vessel attacks have kept Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic severely restricted through September 30, 2026, driving the 100% market-implied probability of “No.” Daily transits averaged roughly 3–9 ships versus a pre-crisis norm of 70–85, with IMF PortWatch and AIS data showing only 3–5% of normal volume on day 214 of the disruption that began February 28. War-risk insurance premiums remain 15–40 times peacetime levels, while ongoing strikes, U.S. naval coordination requirements, and Iranian permit demands have prevented a return to unrestricted operations. Brent crude traded near $97–98 amid the constrained flows. Although some crude exports rebounded via escorted or dark transits, overall commercial activity stayed far below baseline. Tail-risk scenarios include an abrupt diplomatic breakthrough clearing insurance and security barriers before resolution, though recent attacks make that outcome remote.