Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast and control of Perim Island have sustained a selective embargo on Saudi-linked vessels while preserving broader commercial access through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Weekly transits have stabilized near 260–290 vessels (roughly 37–41 daily) in late September, supported by naval escorts and selective carrier routing, though tanker volumes—especially VLCCs—remain suppressed and some operators continue Cape rerouting. This environment of targeted risk rather than outright closure underpins the tight clustering of market-implied odds around the 20–29 daily range, with further escalation in attacks or insurance repricing as the primary swing factors into late October.