Iran’s airspace management remains shaped by the US-Israel-Iran conflict that escalated in early 2026, with Tehran implementing full closures during peak strike periods such as late February before phased reopenings later in the year. As of mid-November 2026, the Tehran FIR operates under partial restrictions and international advisories from EASA and the FAA, with foreign carriers largely avoiding overflights due to missile risks and military activity rather than a blanket Iranian shutdown. Recent regional flare-ups around November 13 triggered temporary closures or warnings in neighboring states including Iraq and Kuwait, while Iranian authorities have alternated brief suspensions with reopenings to domestic and select transit flights. Trader assessments of a full closure by year-end or specific deadlines hinge on whether fresh strikes, failed diplomacy, or heightened alert status prompt Tehran to suspend all commercial operations across its flight information region again. Scheduled EASA advisory reviews and any new bilateral talks represent near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities.