Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tied to U.S.-Iran dynamics, have driven recent crude oil volatility and brief spikes toward $105 per barrel in July 2026. However, WTI and Brent benchmarks currently trade near $82–85 per barrel—far below the 2008 all-time high of $147.27—as Persian Gulf supply recovers toward pre-conflict levels and global demand faces headwinds from higher prices and economic softening. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that these supply rebounds and inventory builds outweigh near-term risk premiums, though upcoming FOMC signals, OPEC+ production decisions, and any diplomatic shifts on Hormuz flows could alter the path. Historical precedents show such geopolitical premiums often fade quickly without sustained physical shortages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$2,512,852 Vol.
2026/09/30
September 30
3%
December 31
12%
$2,512,852 Vol.
September 30
$1,004,794 Vol.
3%
December 31
$717,088 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tied to U.S.-Iran dynamics, have driven recent crude oil volatility and brief spikes toward $105 per barrel in July 2026. However, WTI and Brent benchmarks currently trade near $82–85 per barrel—far below the 2008 all-time high of $147.27—as Persian Gulf supply recovers toward pre-conflict levels and global demand faces headwinds from higher prices and economic softening. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that these supply rebounds and inventory builds outweigh near-term risk premiums, though upcoming FOMC signals, OPEC+ production decisions, and any diplomatic shifts on Hormuz flows could alter the path. Historical precedents show such geopolitical premiums often fade quickly without sustained physical shortages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
マーケット開始日： Apr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$2,512,852終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tied to U.S.-Iran dynamics, have driven recent crude oil volatility and brief spikes toward $105 per barrel in July 2026. However, WTI and Brent benchmarks currently trade near $82–85 per barrel—far below the 2008 all-time high of $147.27—as Persian Gulf supply recovers toward pre-conflict levels and global demand faces headwinds from higher prices and economic softening. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that these supply rebounds and inventory builds outweigh near-term risk premiums, though upcoming FOMC signals, OPEC+ production decisions, and any diplomatic shifts on Hormuz flows could alter the path. Historical precedents show such geopolitical premiums often fade quickly without sustained physical shortages.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day after market creation, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day on or before the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of the specified time period is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
音量
$2,512,852終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Apr 30, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including renewed disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz tied to U.S.-Iran dynamics, have driven recent crude oil volatility and brief spikes toward $105 per barrel in July 2026. However, WTI and Brent benchmarks currently trade near $82–85 per barrel—far below the 2008 all-time high of $147.27—as Persian Gulf supply recovers toward pre-conflict levels and global demand faces headwinds from higher prices and economic softening. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus that these supply rebounds and inventory builds outweigh near-term risk premiums, though upcoming FOMC signals, OPEC+ production decisions, and any diplomatic shifts on Hormuz flows could alter the path. Historical precedents show such geopolitical premiums often fade quickly without sustained physical shortages.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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