Geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran have tightened Middle East supply flows through the Strait of Hormuz, driving significant inventory draws and supporting elevated crude prices in September 2026. WTI crude has traded near $92–96 per barrel recently, up roughly 45–50% year-over-year, while Brent has approached or exceeded $100–108 amid pipeline disruptions and shipping constraints, though both benchmarks remain well below the 2008 all-time high near $147. Weak Chinese refining demand and alternative export routes have capped upside pressure, keeping markets in a deficit but preventing a sustained breach of prior peaks. Key near-term catalysts include any progress in US-Iran negotiations, OPEC+ output decisions, and weekly inventory reports that could shift the balance between supply tightness and demand destruction.