Iran's Supreme Leader succession process advanced rapidly after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 US-Israeli airstrike, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba holds the position and has pursued consolidation through senior military and security appointments, including an IRGC veteran to lead the Supreme National Security Council, alongside force reorganizations and public signals of engagement with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, combined with economic pressures and questions around the new leader's visibility and influence, shape assessments of further transitions. Traders monitor these dynamics, institutional continuity efforts, and any escalation or internal challenges within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$23,479,965 Vol.
2026/08/15
8月15日
<1%
8月22日
1%
8月31日
2%
9月30日
6%
10月31日
10%
11月30日
13%
12月31日
18%
2027年6月30日
26%
$23,479,965 Vol.
8月15日
$60,914 Vol.
<1%
8月22日
$31,948 Vol.
1%
8月31日
$1,148,876 Vol.
2%
9月30日
$438,691 Vol.
6%
10月31日
$8,802 Vol.
10%
11月30日
$10,250 Vol.
13%
12月31日
$3,997,145 Vol.
18%
2027年6月30日
$236,962 Vol.
26%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader succession process advanced rapidly after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 US-Israeli airstrike, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba holds the position and has pursued consolidation through senior military and security appointments, including an IRGC veteran to lead the Supreme National Security Council, alongside force reorganizations and public signals of engagement with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, combined with economic pressures and questions around the new leader's visibility and influence, shape assessments of further transitions. Traders monitor these dynamics, institutional continuity efforts, and any escalation or internal challenges within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET
音量
$23,479,965終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader succession process advanced rapidly after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 US-Israeli airstrike, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba holds the position and has pursued consolidation through senior military and security appointments, including an IRGC veteran to lead the Supreme National Security Council, alongside force reorganizations and public signals of engagement with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, combined with economic pressures and questions around the new leader's visibility and influence, shape assessments of further transitions. Traders monitor these dynamics, institutional continuity efforts, and any escalation or internal challenges within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$23,479,965終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader succession process advanced rapidly after Ali Khamenei's assassination in a February 2026 US-Israeli airstrike, with the Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei in early March. As of mid-August 2026, Mojtaba holds the position and has pursued consolidation through senior military and security appointments, including an IRGC veteran to lead the Supreme National Security Council, alongside force reorganizations and public signals of engagement with President Masoud Pezeshkian. Ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, combined with economic pressures and questions around the new leader's visibility and influence, shape assessments of further transitions. Traders monitor these dynamics, institutional continuity efforts, and any escalation or internal challenges within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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