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icon for イランの指導部は... ？
政治·モイタバ

イランの指導部は... ？

icon for イランの指導部は... ？
政治·モイタバ

イランの指導部は... ？

$23,478,047 Vol.

2026/08/15
Polymarket

$23,478,047 Vol.

Polymarket

8月15日

$60,914 Vol.

<1%

8月22日

$31,948 Vol.

1%

8月31日

$1,148,849 Vol.

2%

9月30日

$438,584 Vol.

6%

10月31日

$8,752 Vol.

10%

11月30日

$9,572 Vol.

13%

12月31日

$3,996,193 Vol.

18%

2027年6月30日

$236,858 Vol.

26%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war triggered Iran's first leadership transition since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and unanimously selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, completing the process by March 9. Interim arrangements involving figures such as Ali Larijani and a temporary council managed the immediate period. The new leadership has since consolidated power, with reports indicating a younger, more hardline orientation while maintaining continuity in key institutions like the IRGC and clerical bodies. This sequence of verified military and institutional events has established the change as a completed fact ahead of most resolution dates, though traders continue to monitor any residual instability or external pressures that could influence longer-term regime dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$23,478,047
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**The assassination of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28, 2026, during the Iran war triggered Iran's first leadership transition since 1989.** The Assembly of Experts convened in early March and unanimously selected Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader, completing the process by March 9. Interim arrangements involving figures such as Ali Larijani and a temporary council managed the immediate period. The new leadership has since consolidated power, with reports indicating a younger, more hardline orientation while maintaining continuity in key institutions like the IRGC and clerical bodies. This sequence of verified military and institutional events has established the change as a completed fact ahead of most resolution dates, though traders continue to monitor any residual instability or external pressures that could influence longer-term regime dynamics.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$23,478,047
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Aug 7, 2026, 10:24 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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よくある質問

「イランの指導部は... ？」はPolymarket上の14個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2027年6月30日」で26%、次いで「12月31日」が18%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、26¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に26%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「イランの指導部は... ？」は$23.5 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Mar 8, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「イランの指導部は... ？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている14個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

「イランの指導部は... ？」の現在のフロントランナーは「2027年6月30日」で26%であり、市場がこの結果に26%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「12月31日」で18%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。

「イランの指導部は... ？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。