The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited succession process, with Iran's Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained formal authority through written statements while key IRGC figures consolidate operational control amid postwar instability. This transition has produced a harder-line posture than before, with institutions largely intact and limited public visibility of the new supreme leader raising questions about day-to-day governance. Traders currently assign roughly 30 percent probability to additional leadership change by year-end, reflecting the balance between entrenched clerical and military structures versus risks from internal factional shifts, health factors, or renewed external pressure. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing diplomatic talks and any visible signs of elite realignment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,594,303 Vol.
2026/05/31
5月31日
5%
6月30日
14%
12月31日
35%
$13,594,303 Vol.
5月31日
$1,925,644 Vol.
5%
6月30日
$1,078,499 Vol.
14%
12月31日
$2,394,280 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited succession process, with Iran's Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained formal authority through written statements while key IRGC figures consolidate operational control amid postwar instability. This transition has produced a harder-line posture than before, with institutions largely intact and limited public visibility of the new supreme leader raising questions about day-to-day governance. Traders currently assign roughly 30 percent probability to additional leadership change by year-end, reflecting the balance between entrenched clerical and military structures versus risks from internal factional shifts, health factors, or renewed external pressure. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing diplomatic talks and any visible signs of elite realignment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
音量
$13,594,303終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited succession process, with Iran's Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained formal authority through written statements while key IRGC figures consolidate operational control amid postwar instability. This transition has produced a harder-line posture than before, with institutions largely intact and limited public visibility of the new supreme leader raising questions about day-to-day governance. Traders currently assign roughly 30 percent probability to additional leadership change by year-end, reflecting the balance between entrenched clerical and military structures versus risks from internal factional shifts, health factors, or renewed external pressure. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing diplomatic talks and any visible signs of elite realignment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$13,594,303終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in late February 2026 during U.S.-Israeli strikes triggered an expedited succession process, with Iran's Assembly of Experts selecting his son Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader in early March. Mojtaba has since maintained formal authority through written statements while key IRGC figures consolidate operational control amid postwar instability. This transition has produced a harder-line posture than before, with institutions largely intact and limited public visibility of the new supreme leader raising questions about day-to-day governance. Traders currently assign roughly 30 percent probability to additional leadership change by year-end, reflecting the balance between entrenched clerical and military structures versus risks from internal factional shifts, health factors, or renewed external pressure. Key near-term catalysts include ongoing diplomatic talks and any visible signs of elite realignment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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