The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 economic protests, currency collapse, and external strikes underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for "No" on collapse before 2027. Nationwide demonstrations that began in December 2025 over inflation, rial devaluation, and sanctions were contained by mid-January through security force operations, communications blackouts, and mass arrests, with no reported large-scale defections from the Revolutionary Guards or military. Following U.S.-Israeli military actions and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured command, and suppressed follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing factional coordination, military appointments, and institutional continuity amid persistent sanctions and inflation show no verified indicators of imminent overthrow, consistent with historical patterns of regime survival through prior protest waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$24,787,541 Vol.
$24,787,541 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$24,787,541 Vol.
$24,787,541 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 economic protests, currency collapse, and external strikes underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for "No" on collapse before 2027. Nationwide demonstrations that began in December 2025 over inflation, rial devaluation, and sanctions were contained by mid-January through security force operations, communications blackouts, and mass arrests, with no reported large-scale defections from the Revolutionary Guards or military. Following U.S.-Israeli military actions and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured command, and suppressed follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing factional coordination, military appointments, and institutional continuity amid persistent sanctions and inflation show no verified indicators of imminent overthrow, consistent with historical patterns of regime survival through prior protest waves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
音量
$24,787,541終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 economic protests, currency collapse, and external strikes underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for "No" on collapse before 2027. Nationwide demonstrations that began in December 2025 over inflation, rial devaluation, and sanctions were contained by mid-January through security force operations, communications blackouts, and mass arrests, with no reported large-scale defections from the Revolutionary Guards or military. Following U.S.-Israeli military actions and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured command, and suppressed follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing factional coordination, military appointments, and institutional continuity amid persistent sanctions and inflation show no verified indicators of imminent overthrow, consistent with historical patterns of regime survival through prior protest waves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$24,787,541終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid 2025–2026 economic protests, currency collapse, and external strikes underpins the 93.5% trader consensus for "No" on collapse before 2027. Nationwide demonstrations that began in December 2025 over inflation, rial devaluation, and sanctions were contained by mid-January through security force operations, communications blackouts, and mass arrests, with no reported large-scale defections from the Revolutionary Guards or military. Following U.S.-Israeli military actions and the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the regime completed an orderly leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, restructured command, and suppressed follow-on unrest. As of August 2026, ongoing factional coordination, military appointments, and institutional continuity amid persistent sanctions and inflation show no verified indicators of imminent overthrow, consistent with historical patterns of regime survival through prior protest waves.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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