The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict, leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, and nationwide protests has anchored trader expectations that it will remain in power through 2026. Recent developments include internal factional disputes, with hard-liners reportedly undermining US negotiations, an unseen successor in Mojtaba Khamenei, and sustained economic pressures from sanctions and currency strains that have not yet produced coordinated elite defections or a unified opposition capable of forcing collapse. Security forces have contained unrest through repression across multiple provinces, while diplomatic stalemates and regional proxy dynamics continue without triggering the rapid institutional breakdown required for regime change before the end of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
7% 確率
$26,036,736 Vol.
$26,036,736 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
7% 確率
$26,036,736 Vol.
$26,036,736 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict, leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, and nationwide protests has anchored trader expectations that it will remain in power through 2026. Recent developments include internal factional disputes, with hard-liners reportedly undermining US negotiations, an unseen successor in Mojtaba Khamenei, and sustained economic pressures from sanctions and currency strains that have not yet produced coordinated elite defections or a unified opposition capable of forcing collapse. Security forces have contained unrest through repression across multiple provinces, while diplomatic stalemates and regional proxy dynamics continue without triggering the rapid institutional breakdown required for regime change before the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ET
音量
$26,036,736終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict, leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, and nationwide protests has anchored trader expectations that it will remain in power through 2026. Recent developments include internal factional disputes, with hard-liners reportedly undermining US negotiations, an unseen successor in Mojtaba Khamenei, and sustained economic pressures from sanctions and currency strains that have not yet produced coordinated elite defections or a unified opposition capable of forcing collapse. Security forces have contained unrest through repression across multiple provinces, while diplomatic stalemates and regional proxy dynamics continue without triggering the rapid institutional breakdown required for regime change before the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$26,036,736終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 3, 2025, 6:51 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience amid the 2026 US-Israel conflict, leadership transition following Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death, and nationwide protests has anchored trader expectations that it will remain in power through 2026. Recent developments include internal factional disputes, with hard-liners reportedly undermining US negotiations, an unseen successor in Mojtaba Khamenei, and sustained economic pressures from sanctions and currency strains that have not yet produced coordinated elite defections or a unified opposition capable of forcing collapse. Security forces have contained unrest through repression across multiple provinces, while diplomatic stalemates and regional proxy dynamics continue without triggering the rapid institutional breakdown required for regime change before the end of the year.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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