The Trump administration's explicit public statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has questioned Pahlavi's ability to build domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that regime change or installing an exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty without referencing opposition figures or transition plans, and officials have consistently sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid ongoing protests, internal opposition divisions, and a preference for negotiated stability. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse enabling Pahlavi's emergence or an abrupt policy shift remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$625,097 Vol.
$625,097 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$625,097 Vol.
$625,097 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration's explicit public statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has questioned Pahlavi's ability to build domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that regime change or installing an exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty without referencing opposition figures or transition plans, and officials have consistently sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid ongoing protests, internal opposition divisions, and a preference for negotiated stability. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse enabling Pahlavi's emergence or an abrupt policy shift remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
音量
$625,097終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Trump administration's explicit public statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has questioned Pahlavi's ability to build domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that regime change or installing an exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty without referencing opposition figures or transition plans, and officials have consistently sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid ongoing protests, internal opposition divisions, and a preference for negotiated stability. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse enabling Pahlavi's emergence or an abrupt policy shift remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$625,097終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's explicit public statements and diplomatic actions have anchored trader consensus against U.S. recognition of Reza Pahlavi as Iran's leader by the end of 2026. President Trump has questioned Pahlavi's ability to build domestic support inside Iran, while Vice President Vance has stated that regime change or installing an exiled opposition figure is not administration policy. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran ceasefire memorandum affirmed Iranian sovereignty without referencing opposition figures or transition plans, and officials have consistently sidelined Pahlavi in diplomatic channels amid ongoing protests, internal opposition divisions, and a preference for negotiated stability. A sudden, verifiable regime collapse enabling Pahlavi's emergence or an abrupt policy shift remain the main low-probability developments that could still alter the outcome before December 31.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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