Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5% "Yes," reflecting the regime's entrenched stability amid the 2026 US-Israel war. April rumors of IRGC hardliners forming a military council to sideline reformist President Pezeshkian and control access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei fueled brief speculation but subsided without escalating into a widely reported overthrow bid, instead marking a gradual power shift to security elites. No verified military defections, mass protests, or factional clashes have emerged in the past 30 days, as Tehran prioritizes ceasefire diplomacy—including May counterproposals on the Strait of Hormuz and non-aggression guarantees—over internal strife. Wartime unity and IRGC dominance pose formidable barriers, though sudden war escalations or leadership health issues could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,114,017 Vol.
$1,114,017 Vol.
2026/06/30
はい
$1,114,017 Vol.
$1,114,017 Vol.
2026/06/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5% "Yes," reflecting the regime's entrenched stability amid the 2026 US-Israel war. April rumors of IRGC hardliners forming a military council to sideline reformist President Pezeshkian and control access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei fueled brief speculation but subsided without escalating into a widely reported overthrow bid, instead marking a gradual power shift to security elites. No verified military defections, mass protests, or factional clashes have emerged in the past 30 days, as Tehran prioritizes ceasefire diplomacy—including May counterproposals on the Strait of Hormuz and non-aggression guarantees—over internal strife. Wartime unity and IRGC dominance pose formidable barriers, though sudden war escalations or leadership health issues could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$1,114,017終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5% "Yes," reflecting the regime's entrenched stability amid the 2026 US-Israel war. April rumors of IRGC hardliners forming a military council to sideline reformist President Pezeshkian and control access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei fueled brief speculation but subsided without escalating into a widely reported overthrow bid, instead marking a gradual power shift to security elites. No verified military defections, mass protests, or factional clashes have emerged in the past 30 days, as Tehran prioritizes ceasefire diplomacy—including May counterproposals on the Strait of Hormuz and non-aggression guarantees—over internal strife. Wartime unity and IRGC dominance pose formidable barriers, though sudden war escalations or leadership health issues could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,114,017終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a coup attempt in Iran by June 30 at just 10.5% "Yes," reflecting the regime's entrenched stability amid the 2026 US-Israel war. April rumors of IRGC hardliners forming a military council to sideline reformist President Pezeshkian and control access to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei fueled brief speculation but subsided without escalating into a widely reported overthrow bid, instead marking a gradual power shift to security elites. No verified military defections, mass protests, or factional clashes have emerged in the past 30 days, as Tehran prioritizes ceasefire diplomacy—including May counterproposals on the Strait of Hormuz and non-aggression guarantees—over internal strife. Wartime unity and IRGC dominance pose formidable barriers, though sudden war escalations or leadership health issues could shift dynamics.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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