Internal power dynamics in Iran remain shaped by the March 2026 constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei following external strikes that killed Ali Khamenei, with the IRGC expanding influence over security and decision-making without evidence of an internal coup attempt. Recent October 2026 protests over inflation, currency collapse, and living costs have prompted security crackdowns, arrests, and executions tied to earlier unrest, alongside regime accusations of foreign interference. Diplomatic efforts with the US and regional mediators continue amid Hormuz tensions and threats of renewed strikes, while factional debates over negotiations and hardliner consolidation influence stability assessments. Traders monitor scheduled talks and protest escalation as potential triggers for shifts in perceived regime cohesion.