Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party, military, and state institutions following earlier leadership consolidations and targeted purges in the People's Liberation Army. Recent unverified rumors of factional challenges around senior generals in early 2026 produced no confirmed disruptions, violence, or shifts in power, reinforcing perceptions of stability ahead of the 2027 party congress. The opaque, centralized structure of CCP decision-making limits visible elite coordination or public dissent that could enable coup attempts. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the absence of credible catalysts. Potential shifts could still arise from acute economic pressures fracturing elite unity, sudden leadership health events, or external crises such as escalated cross-strait tensions prompting internal realignments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$153,752 Vol.
$153,752 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
$153,752 Vol.
$153,752 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party, military, and state institutions following earlier leadership consolidations and targeted purges in the People's Liberation Army. Recent unverified rumors of factional challenges around senior generals in early 2026 produced no confirmed disruptions, violence, or shifts in power, reinforcing perceptions of stability ahead of the 2027 party congress. The opaque, centralized structure of CCP decision-making limits visible elite coordination or public dissent that could enable coup attempts. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the absence of credible catalysts. Potential shifts could still arise from acute economic pressures fracturing elite unity, sudden leadership health events, or external crises such as escalated cross-strait tensions prompting internal realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$153,752終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party, military, and state institutions following earlier leadership consolidations and targeted purges in the People's Liberation Army. Recent unverified rumors of factional challenges around senior generals in early 2026 produced no confirmed disruptions, violence, or shifts in power, reinforcing perceptions of stability ahead of the 2027 party congress. The opaque, centralized structure of CCP decision-making limits visible elite coordination or public dissent that could enable coup attempts. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the absence of credible catalysts. Potential shifts could still arise from acute economic pressures fracturing elite unity, sudden leadership health events, or external crises such as escalated cross-strait tensions prompting internal realignments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$153,752終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party, military, and state institutions following earlier leadership consolidations and targeted purges in the People's Liberation Army. Recent unverified rumors of factional challenges around senior generals in early 2026 produced no confirmed disruptions, violence, or shifts in power, reinforcing perceptions of stability ahead of the 2027 party congress. The opaque, centralized structure of CCP decision-making limits visible elite coordination or public dissent that could enable coup attempts. Trader consensus at 96.4% for no attempt before 2027 reflects these structural barriers and the absence of credible catalysts. Potential shifts could still arise from acute economic pressures fracturing elite unity, sudden leadership health events, or external crises such as escalated cross-strait tensions prompting internal realignments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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