Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 96.7% for a China coup attempt before 2027, driven by the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ironclad control over the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and internal security apparatus, underscored by President Xi Jinping's sweeping military purges in January 2026 that removed top generals like Zhang Youxia amid corruption probes but revealed no evidence of organized rebellion or violence—rumors of which quickly dissipated. With no verified instability, protests, or factional challenges in the past four months, historical precedents since 1949 show zero successful coups, reinforcing stability amid economic pressures and Taiwan tensions. Barring unforeseen triggers like Xi's incapacitation, catastrophic policy failure, or mass unrest escalation, odds remain firmly anchored.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$127,619 Vol.
$127,619 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$127,619 Vol.
$127,619 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 96.7% for a China coup attempt before 2027, driven by the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ironclad control over the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and internal security apparatus, underscored by President Xi Jinping's sweeping military purges in January 2026 that removed top generals like Zhang Youxia amid corruption probes but revealed no evidence of organized rebellion or violence—rumors of which quickly dissipated. With no verified instability, protests, or factional challenges in the past four months, historical precedents since 1949 show zero successful coups, reinforcing stability amid economic pressures and Taiwan tensions. Barring unforeseen triggers like Xi's incapacitation, catastrophic policy failure, or mass unrest escalation, odds remain firmly anchored.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
音量
$127,619終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 96.7% for a China coup attempt before 2027, driven by the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ironclad control over the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and internal security apparatus, underscored by President Xi Jinping's sweeping military purges in January 2026 that removed top generals like Zhang Youxia amid corruption probes but revealed no evidence of organized rebellion or violence—rumors of which quickly dissipated. With no verified instability, protests, or factional challenges in the past four months, historical precedents since 1949 show zero successful coups, reinforcing stability amid economic pressures and Taiwan tensions. Barring unforeseen triggers like Xi's incapacitation, catastrophic policy failure, or mass unrest escalation, odds remain firmly anchored.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$127,619終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain "No" at 96.7% for a China coup attempt before 2027, driven by the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) ironclad control over the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and internal security apparatus, underscored by President Xi Jinping's sweeping military purges in January 2026 that removed top generals like Zhang Youxia amid corruption probes but revealed no evidence of organized rebellion or violence—rumors of which quickly dissipated. With no verified instability, protests, or factional challenges in the past four months, historical precedents since 1949 show zero successful coups, reinforcing stability amid economic pressures and Taiwan tensions. Barring unforeseen triggers like Xi's incapacitation, catastrophic policy failure, or mass unrest escalation, odds remain firmly anchored.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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