Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a multi-month offensive and have held most of the town since, with Ukrainian forces conducting localized counterattacks and recapturing nearby villages such as Rybine in September 2026. In the Huliaipole sector, Russian units continue limited assaults and infiltration attempts but face intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on logistics routes like the Huliaipole–Pology highway, reducing daily attack volumes and equipment effectiveness. Recent ISW assessments note no confirmed Russian advances in the direction amid ongoing clashes, while Ukrainian operations emphasize disrupting supplies rather than urban re-entry. Trader consensus on low near-term probabilities reflects these defensive dynamics, sustained Russian reinforcements in the sector, and the absence of broader Ukrainian breakthroughs or major shifts in force posture through late 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$33,164 Vol.
2026/10/31
10月31日
8%
12月31日
12%
$33,164 Vol.
10月31日
$22,423 Vol.
8%
12月31日
$10,741 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a multi-month offensive and have held most of the town since, with Ukrainian forces conducting localized counterattacks and recapturing nearby villages such as Rybine in September 2026. In the Huliaipole sector, Russian units continue limited assaults and infiltration attempts but face intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on logistics routes like the Huliaipole–Pology highway, reducing daily attack volumes and equipment effectiveness. Recent ISW assessments note no confirmed Russian advances in the direction amid ongoing clashes, while Ukrainian operations emphasize disrupting supplies rather than urban re-entry. Trader consensus on low near-term probabilities reflects these defensive dynamics, sustained Russian reinforcements in the sector, and the absence of broader Ukrainian breakthroughs or major shifts in force posture through late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
マーケット開始日： Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
音量
$33,164終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a multi-month offensive and have held most of the town since, with Ukrainian forces conducting localized counterattacks and recapturing nearby villages such as Rybine in September 2026. In the Huliaipole sector, Russian units continue limited assaults and infiltration attempts but face intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on logistics routes like the Huliaipole–Pology highway, reducing daily attack volumes and equipment effectiveness. Recent ISW assessments note no confirmed Russian advances in the direction amid ongoing clashes, while Ukrainian operations emphasize disrupting supplies rather than urban re-entry. Trader consensus on low near-term probabilities reflects these defensive dynamics, sustained Russian reinforcements in the sector, and the absence of broader Ukrainian breakthroughs or major shifts in force posture through late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Huliaipole, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.662681° N, 36.253683° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
音量
$33,164終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Aug 5, 2026, 8:09 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Russian forces captured Huliaipole in January 2026 following a multi-month offensive and have held most of the town since, with Ukrainian forces conducting localized counterattacks and recapturing nearby villages such as Rybine in September 2026. In the Huliaipole sector, Russian units continue limited assaults and infiltration attempts but face intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on logistics routes like the Huliaipole–Pology highway, reducing daily attack volumes and equipment effectiveness. Recent ISW assessments note no confirmed Russian advances in the direction amid ongoing clashes, while Ukrainian operations emphasize disrupting supplies rather than urban re-entry. Trader consensus on low near-term probabilities reflects these defensive dynamics, sustained Russian reinforcements in the sector, and the absence of broader Ukrainian breakthroughs or major shifts in force posture through late 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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