**Ongoing US-Iran conflict and Iranian assertions of control over the Strait of Hormuz have kept commercial traffic severely restricted since the February 2026 escalation, with daily transits often in the single digits to low dozens against a pre-crisis baseline of roughly 130 ships per day.** Recent months show repeated attacks on vessels (including drone and projectile strikes in June, July, and August), IRGC enforcement actions such as turn-back orders and seizures, US naval blockades and sanctions, and suspended international evacuation corridors. As of mid-to-late August 2026, most energy carriers operate dark or unclassified, war-risk premiums remain extremely elevated (around 40x normal), and shipowners face high risks of interdiction or damage, leading operators to avoid or reroute traffic. These factors—active kinetic incidents, Iranian demands for prior coordination or fees, and the absence of a durable diplomatic resolution—sustain extreme operational pressure and explain trader consensus that normal volumes are unlikely to resume by year-end. Diplomatic talks have produced only temporary or collapsed pauses, while structural barriers like insurance costs, sanctions exposure, and security threats continue to suppress flows.