This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Jun 22 2026
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid US-Iran talks
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on June 19, 2026, following escalations in Lebanon. While this reduced immediate hostilities, Israel maintained its military presence in southern Lebanon, and ongoing strikes continued, limiting expectations for full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Apr 26 2026
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 23 2026
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Apr 19 2026
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Apr 17 2026
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Jun 22 2026
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
Jun 19 2026
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid US-Iran talks
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on June 19, 2026, following escalations in Lebanon. While this reduced immediate hostilities, Israel maintained its military presence in southern Lebanon, and ongoing strikes continued, limiting expectations for full withdrawal by near-term dates.
Jun 15 2026
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Jun 15 2026
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Apr 26 2026
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 26 2026
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Apr 23 2026
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Apr 19 2026
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Apr 17 2026
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
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よくある質問
「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」はPolymarket上の7個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「December 31」で23%、次いで「September 30」が13%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、23¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に23%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。
本日現在、「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」は$6.9 millionの総取引量を生み出しています（Apr 16, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。
「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」で取引するには、このページに記載されている7個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。
「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」の現在のフロントランナーは「December 31」で23%であり、市場がこの結果に23%の確率を割り当てていることを意味します。次に近い結果は「September 30」で13%です。これらのオッズはトレーダーがシェアを売買するにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。頻繁に確認するか、このページをブックマークしてください。
「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。
はい。情報を得るために取引する必要はありません。このページは「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」のライブトラッカーとして機能します。結果の確率は新しい取引が入るにつれてリアルタイムで更新されます。このページをブックマークし、コメントセクションで他のトレーダーの意見を確認できます。チャートの時間範囲フィルターを使用して、オッズが時間とともにどのように変化したかを確認することもできます。市場が何を予測しているかを無料でリアルタイムに見ることができます。
Polymarketのオッズは、自分の信念に実際のお金を投じる本物のトレーダーによって設定されており、正確な予測を生み出す傾向があります。“Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?”で$6.9 millionが取引されており、これらの価格は何千人もの参加者の集合的な知識と確信を集約しています——世論調査、専門家の予測、従来の調査を上回ることも多いです。Polymarketのような予測市場は、特にイベントが決済日に近づくにつれて、精度の実績が優れています。例えば、Polymarketの1ヶ月精度スコアは94%です。Polymarketの予測精度に関する最新統計は、 精度ページをご覧ください。
「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」で最初の取引を行うには、無料のPolymarketアカウントに登録し、暗号通貨、クレジットカードまたはデビットカード、銀行振込で入金してください。アカウントに入金したら、このページに戻り、取引したい結果を選び、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックしてください。予測市場が初めての方は、Polymarketの任意のページ上部にある「仕組み」リンクをクリックして、ステップバイステップのガイドをご覧ください。
Polymarketでは、各結果の価格は市場の暗示確率を表します。「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」市場における「December 31」の価格23¢は、トレーダーが「December 31」が正しい結果となる確率をおよそ23%と集合的に評価していることを意味します。23¢で「はい」のシェアを購入し、結果が正しければ、シェアあたり$1.00を受け取ります。つまりシェアあたり77¢の利益です。正しくない場合、そのシェアは$0の価値になります。
「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」市場はJun 29, 2026前後に決済される予定です。つまり、その日までは取引が可能で、オッズは新しい情報の出現に伴い変化し続けます。正確な決済タイミングは「ルール」セクションに記載されている通り、公式結果がいつ利用可能になるかによって異なります。
「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」市場には208件のコメントによる活発なコミュニティがあり、トレーダーが分析を共有し、結果を議論し、最新の動向について話し合っています。下のコメントセクションまでスクロールして、他の参加者の意見を読んでください。「トップホルダー」でフィルタリングしたり、「アクティビティ」タブでリアルタイムの取引フィードを確認することもできます。
Polymarketは世界最大の予測市場で、現実世界のイベントについて最新情報を得て、知識から利益を得ることができます。トレーダーは政治や選挙から暗号通貨、金融、スポーツ、テクノロジー、文化まで幅広いトピックの結果のシェアを売買しています。「Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?」のような市場も含まれます。価格は金融的確信に裏付けられたリアルタイムの確率を反映しており、世論調査、評論家、従来の調査よりも迅速で正確なシグナルを提供することがよくあります。
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問