Israel maintains ground forces in southern Lebanon despite a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began April 16, 2026, and was extended multiple times, now nearing expiration around May 17 amid Washington talks between Israeli and Lebanese officials. Recent Israeli airstrikes and the military chief of staff's rejection of Hezbollah disarmament without full compliance have heightened tensions, casting doubt on near-term withdrawal prospects. Ongoing clashes, including IDF advances in villages like At Tiri and reports of partial brigade pullbacks, reflect trader consensus on persistent occupation to enforce a buffer zone. Key hurdles include Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and unresolved peace negotiations, with outcomes hinging on upcoming diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$1,476,186 Vol.
2026/06/30
5月31日
1%
6月30日
9%
$1,476,186 Vol.
5月31日
$1,208,536 Vol.
1%
6月30日
$192,644 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains ground forces in southern Lebanon despite a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began April 16, 2026, and was extended multiple times, now nearing expiration around May 17 amid Washington talks between Israeli and Lebanese officials. Recent Israeli airstrikes and the military chief of staff's rejection of Hezbollah disarmament without full compliance have heightened tensions, casting doubt on near-term withdrawal prospects. Ongoing clashes, including IDF advances in villages like At Tiri and reports of partial brigade pullbacks, reflect trader consensus on persistent occupation to enforce a buffer zone. Key hurdles include Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and unresolved peace negotiations, with outcomes hinging on upcoming diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
音量
$1,476,186終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israel maintains ground forces in southern Lebanon despite a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began April 16, 2026, and was extended multiple times, now nearing expiration around May 17 amid Washington talks between Israeli and Lebanese officials. Recent Israeli airstrikes and the military chief of staff's rejection of Hezbollah disarmament without full compliance have heightened tensions, casting doubt on near-term withdrawal prospects. Ongoing clashes, including IDF advances in villages like At Tiri and reports of partial brigade pullbacks, reflect trader consensus on persistent occupation to enforce a buffer zone. Key hurdles include Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and unresolved peace negotiations, with outcomes hinging on upcoming diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
音量
$1,476,186終了日
2026/06/30マーケット開始日
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israel maintains ground forces in southern Lebanon despite a fragile U.S.-brokered ceasefire that began April 16, 2026, and was extended multiple times, now nearing expiration around May 17 amid Washington talks between Israeli and Lebanese officials. Recent Israeli airstrikes and the military chief of staff's rejection of Hezbollah disarmament without full compliance have heightened tensions, casting doubt on near-term withdrawal prospects. Ongoing clashes, including IDF advances in villages like At Tiri and reports of partial brigade pullbacks, reflect trader consensus on persistent occupation to enforce a buffer zone. Key hurdles include Hezbollah's refusal to disarm and unresolved peace negotiations, with outcomes hinging on upcoming diplomatic breakthroughs or escalations.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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