Geopolitical tensions and security risks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of subdued shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian transit approvals, a reinstated US naval blockade, and recent vessel attacks have kept daily crossings at low single-digit levels in July and early August, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 ships. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions, and selective naval interceptions continue to constrain flows, supporting trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits as the most probable range. Iran-Oman talks offer a potential near-term catalyst for modest stabilization, though any renewed escalation could further depress activity and elevate implied probabilities for sub-25 outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日25〜49 42%
25未満 30%
50〜74 15%
75〜99 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/16
25未満
30%
25〜49
42%
50〜74
15%
75〜99
12%
100以上
6%
25〜49 42%
25未満 30%
50〜74 15%
75〜99 12%
新規
新規
2026/08/16
25未満
$141 Vol.
30%
25〜49
$109 Vol.
42%
50〜74
$62 Vol.
15%
75〜99
$76 Vol.
12%
100以上
$164 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and security risks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of subdued shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian transit approvals, a reinstated US naval blockade, and recent vessel attacks have kept daily crossings at low single-digit levels in July and early August, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 ships. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions, and selective naval interceptions continue to constrain flows, supporting trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits as the most probable range. Iran-Oman talks offer a potential near-term catalyst for modest stabilization, though any renewed escalation could further depress activity and elevate implied probabilities for sub-25 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
マーケット開始日： Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
音量
$539終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and security risks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of subdued shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian transit approvals, a reinstated US naval blockade, and recent vessel attacks have kept daily crossings at low single-digit levels in July and early August, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 ships. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions, and selective naval interceptions continue to constrain flows, supporting trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits as the most probable range. Iran-Oman talks offer a potential near-term catalyst for modest stabilization, though any renewed escalation could further depress activity and elevate implied probabilities for sub-25 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
音量
$539終了日
2026/08/16マーケット開始日
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions and security risks from the ongoing US-Iran conflict remain the dominant driver of subdued shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian transit approvals, a reinstated US naval blockade, and recent vessel attacks have kept daily crossings at low single-digit levels in July and early August, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 100 ships. Elevated war-risk premiums, route restrictions, and selective naval interceptions continue to constrain flows, supporting trader consensus around 25-49 weekly transits as the most probable range. Iran-Oman talks offer a potential near-term catalyst for modest stabilization, though any renewed escalation could further depress activity and elevate implied probabilities for sub-25 outcomes.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問