Mojtaba Khamenei has remained largely absent from public view since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Ali Khamenei, and reportedly wounded Mojtaba. Iranian officials have attributed the low profile to security threats and recovery needs amid ongoing regional tensions, while releasing written statements and limited undated video footage in early August 2026 to address health speculation. Recent confirmations from President Masoud Pezeshkian of in-person meetings and claims of the leader's "perfect health" have shaped trader focus on whether a verified in-person public appearance will occur before any market resolution date. Key variables include potential regime events, memorial observances, or shifts in conflict dynamics that could prompt or further delay a live sighting.