Recent U.S. reimposition of sanctions on Iranian oil exports in early July, following tanker incidents and the breakdown of a short-lived ceasefire, has tightened revenue flows and foreign currency reserves for Tehran. Combined with damage from prior strikes on infrastructure and persistent nuclear-related restrictions, these steps sustain pressure on the rial through reduced hard-currency inflows and higher import costs. Trader consensus remains closely split across the 1.7–2.2 million range because markets weigh the potential for renewed diplomatic talks or sanctions relief against risks of further escalation in the Strait of Hormuz or additional enforcement actions before month-end. Any verified progress on oil-sale waivers or de-escalation signals could shift probabilities toward lower rates, while renewed military or regulatory moves would favor higher outcomes.