The March 2026 selection of Mojtaba Khamenei by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader, following the U.S.-Israeli assassination of his father amid escalating strikes, has established him as the dominant trader favorite for end-2026 continuity. His IRGC ties and alignment with hardline structures reinforced regime preferences during the immediate wartime transition, yet persistent health rumors, minimal public appearances, and speculation over injuries sustained in the February attacks have tempered probabilities below certainty. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflects limited opposition momentum and institutional barriers within the current clerical-security framework. Ongoing regional tensions and procedural opacity in leadership retention further shape these assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 63.9%
レザ・パフラヴィ 7%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 5.0%
国家元首不在 2.8%
$8,271,176 Vol.
$8,271,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
64%
レザ・パフラヴィ
7%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
5%
国家元首不在
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
<1%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 63.9%
レザ・パフラヴィ 7%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ 5.0%
国家元首不在 2.8%
$8,271,176 Vol.
$8,271,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$2,067,865 Vol.
64%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$206,220 Vol.
7%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$227,966 Vol.
5%
国家元首不在
$460,072 Vol.
3%
アッバース・アラークチー
$185,754 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$325,530 Vol.
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$271,365 Vol.
1%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$833,426 Vol.
1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$291,446 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$785,882 Vol.
1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$63,677 Vol.
1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$48,234 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$299,020 Vol.
<1%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$111,646 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$420,949 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$195,597 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$62,223 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$87,111 Vol.
<1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$290,404 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$179,708 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$50,826 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$100,091 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$80,707 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$64,445 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$52,715 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$33,414 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$83,166 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$71,898 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$39,291 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$43,666 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The March 2026 selection of Mojtaba Khamenei by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader, following the U.S.-Israeli assassination of his father amid escalating strikes, has established him as the dominant trader favorite for end-2026 continuity. His IRGC ties and alignment with hardline structures reinforced regime preferences during the immediate wartime transition, yet persistent health rumors, minimal public appearances, and speculation over injuries sustained in the February attacks have tempered probabilities below certainty. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflects limited opposition momentum and institutional barriers within the current clerical-security framework. Ongoing regional tensions and procedural opacity in leadership retention further shape these assessments.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$8,271,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.The March 2026 selection of Mojtaba Khamenei by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader, following the U.S.-Israeli assassination of his father amid escalating strikes, has established him as the dominant trader favorite for end-2026 continuity. His IRGC ties and alignment with hardline structures reinforced regime preferences during the immediate wartime transition, yet persistent health rumors, minimal public appearances, and speculation over injuries sustained in the February attacks have tempered probabilities below certainty. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflects limited opposition momentum and institutional barriers within the current clerical-security framework. Ongoing regional tensions and procedural opacity in leadership retention further shape these assessments.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$8,271,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The March 2026 selection of Mojtaba Khamenei by Iran's Assembly of Experts as supreme leader, following the U.S.-Israeli assassination of his father amid escalating strikes, has established him as the dominant trader favorite for end-2026 continuity. His IRGC ties and alignment with hardline structures reinforced regime preferences during the immediate wartime transition, yet persistent health rumors, minimal public appearances, and speculation over injuries sustained in the February attacks have tempered probabilities below certainty. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Reza Pahlavi or Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf reflects limited opposition momentum and institutional barriers within the current clerical-security framework. Ongoing regional tensions and procedural opacity in leadership retention further shape these assessments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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