Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 83% implied probability because he was elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, shortly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes. The rapid institutional transition consolidated power around the younger Khamenei despite longstanding clerical resistance to hereditary succession and his limited public profile. Through mid-August 2026, no major factional challenges, health crises, or leadership shifts have emerged to disrupt continuity, with Iranian officials publicly affirming his engagement and condition. Traders price residual tail risks for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi at low single digits, reflecting the absence of credible near-term pathways to alter the post-March power structure before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 83.0%
国家元首不在 4.0%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.0%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.0%
$38,722,053 Vol.
$38,722,053 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
83%
国家元首不在
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 83.0%
国家元首不在 4.0%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.0%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.0%
$38,722,053 Vol.
$38,722,053 Vol.
2026/12/30
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$6,088,508 Vol.
83%
国家元首不在
$1,149,653 Vol.
4%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$673,175 Vol.
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$2,313,300 Vol.
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$1,121,241 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$944,945 Vol.
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$777,052 Vol.
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$1,020,430 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$1,431,932 Vol.
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$918,308 Vol.
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$437,994 Vol.
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$833,728 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$536,815 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$3,147,104 Vol.
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$806,218 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$398,130 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$3,694,820 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$147,321 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$214,866 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$199,474 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$836,843 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$434,723 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$3,350,421 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$239,447 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$389,683 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$5,192,349 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$281,978 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$254,791 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$306,887 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$343,056 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 83% implied probability because he was elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, shortly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes. The rapid institutional transition consolidated power around the younger Khamenei despite longstanding clerical resistance to hereditary succession and his limited public profile. Through mid-August 2026, no major factional challenges, health crises, or leadership shifts have emerged to disrupt continuity, with Iranian officials publicly affirming his engagement and condition. Traders price residual tail risks for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi at low single digits, reflecting the absence of credible near-term pathways to alter the post-March power structure before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$38,722,053終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 83% implied probability because he was elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, shortly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes. The rapid institutional transition consolidated power around the younger Khamenei despite longstanding clerical resistance to hereditary succession and his limited public profile. Through mid-August 2026, no major factional challenges, health crises, or leadership shifts have emerged to disrupt continuity, with Iranian officials publicly affirming his engagement and condition. Traders price residual tail risks for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi at low single digits, reflecting the absence of credible near-term pathways to alter the post-March power structure before year-end.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$38,722,053終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an 83% implied probability because he was elected Supreme Leader by Iran's Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, shortly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in late-February US-Israeli strikes. The rapid institutional transition consolidated power around the younger Khamenei despite longstanding clerical resistance to hereditary succession and his limited public profile. Through mid-August 2026, no major factional challenges, health crises, or leadership shifts have emerged to disrupt continuity, with Iranian officials publicly affirming his engagement and condition. Traders price residual tail risks for alternatives such as Alireza Arafi or opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi at low single digits, reflecting the absence of credible near-term pathways to alter the post-March power structure before year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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