Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日Iran leader end of 2026?
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%
Reza Pahlavi 3.5%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.3%
No Head of State 2.6%
$17,198,485 Vol.
$17,198,485 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Reza Pahlavi
4%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
3%
No Head of State
3%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Khomeini
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
Mojtaba Khamenei 82.3%
Reza Pahlavi 3.5%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 3.3%
No Head of State 2.6%
$17,198,485 Vol.
$17,198,485 Vol.
Mojtaba Khamenei
82%
Reza Pahlavi
4%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
3%
No Head of State
3%
Alireza Arafi
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
<1%
Abbas Araghchi
<1%
Hassan Rouhani
<1%
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
<1%
Sadegh Larijani
<1%
Hassan Khomeini
<1%
Hassan Shariatmadari
<1%
Maryam Rajavi
<1%
Massoud Rajavi
<1%
Reza Pirzadeh
<1%
Navid Shomali
<1%
Mustafa Hijri
<1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
<1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
<1%
Saeed Jalili
<1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
<1%
Mohammad Khatami
<1%
Ahmad Vahidi
<1%
Nasir Hosseini
<1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
<1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
<1%
Ali Motahari
<1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
<1%
Mohsen Araki
<1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
<1%
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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