Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 82.3% implied probability because he was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Recent actions, including August 2026 military and security appointments such as Basij commander, demonstrate active consolidation of authority by the incumbent. The low odds on alternatives like Alireza Arafi, Hassan Rouhani, or Reza Pahlavi reflect the completed transition to a hardline clerical successor and the absence of credible challenges or constitutional triggers for another change before year-end. Trader consensus prices in regime continuity amid ongoing regional tensions rather than a rapid shift in leadership structures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.3%
国家元首不在 4.5%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.4%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.4%
$38,627,485 Vol.
$38,627,485 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
82%
国家元首不在
5%
レザ・パフラヴィ
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
<1%
モジュタバ・ハメネイ 82.3%
国家元首不在 4.5%
レザ・パフラヴィ 3.4%
アリレザ・アラフィ 2.4%
$38,627,485 Vol.
$38,627,485 Vol.
2026/12/31
モジュタバ・ハメネイ
$6,035,438 Vol.
82%
国家元首不在
$1,148,260 Vol.
5%
レザ・パフラヴィ
$672,396 Vol.
3%
アリレザ・アラフィ
$2,311,688 Vol.
2%
マフムード・アフマディーネジャード
$1,120,634 Vol.
2%
ハッサン・ロウハニ
$944,728 Vol.
1%
ハッサン・ホメイニ
$1,425,383 Vol.
1%
マスード・ペゼシュキアン
$1,020,011 Vol.
1%
アフマド・ヴァヒーディー
$776,835 Vol.
1%
モハンマド＝バゲル・ガリバフ
$918,080 Vol.
1%
ムハンマド・ミルバキリ
$437,515 Vol.
<1%
アッバース・アラークチー
$833,512 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・ラリジャニ
$535,395 Vol.
<1%
ハッサン・シャリアトマダリ
$3,143,856 Vol.
<1%
マリアム・ラジャビ
$804,694 Vol.
<1%
マスード・ラジャビ
$397,112 Vol.
<1%
セイエド・ホセイン・モサヴィアン
$3,694,285 Vol.
<1%
レザ・ピルザデ
$145,282 Vol.
<1%
ナビド・ショマリ
$211,166 Vol.
<1%
ムスタファ・ヒジリ
$199,090 Vol.
<1%
アリ・モタハリ
$835,738 Vol.
<1%
ゴラムアリ・ハッダード＝アーデル
$433,132 Vol.
<1%
モスタファ・プールモハンマディ
$3,346,847 Vol.
<1%
サーデグ・マフスーリー
$239,173 Vol.
<1%
サイード・ジャリリ
$384,637 Vol.
<1%
モハンマド・ハータミ
$5,191,729 Vol.
<1%
モフセン・アラキ
$281,722 Vol.
<1%
ナシル・ホセイニ
$254,387 Vol.
<1%
アフマド・ホセイニ・コラーサーニー
$306,671 Vol.
<1%
アリー・アスガル・ヘジャジ
$341,226 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 82.3% implied probability because he was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Recent actions, including August 2026 military and security appointments such as Basij commander, demonstrate active consolidation of authority by the incumbent. The low odds on alternatives like Alireza Arafi, Hassan Rouhani, or Reza Pahlavi reflect the completed transition to a hardline clerical successor and the absence of credible challenges or constitutional triggers for another change before year-end. Trader consensus prices in regime continuity amid ongoing regional tensions rather than a rapid shift in leadership structures.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
音量
$38,627,485終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 82.3% implied probability because he was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Recent actions, including August 2026 military and security appointments such as Basij commander, demonstrate active consolidation of authority by the incumbent. The low odds on alternatives like Alireza Arafi, Hassan Rouhani, or Reza Pahlavi reflect the completed transition to a hardline clerical successor and the absence of credible challenges or constitutional triggers for another change before year-end. Trader consensus prices in regime continuity amid ongoing regional tensions rather than a rapid shift in leadership structures.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.
If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
音量
$38,627,485終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming 82.3% implied probability because he was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader in March 2026 following the assassination of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, during the February 2026 conflict with the United States and Israel. Recent actions, including August 2026 military and security appointments such as Basij commander, demonstrate active consolidation of authority by the incumbent. The low odds on alternatives like Alireza Arafi, Hassan Rouhani, or Reza Pahlavi reflect the completed transition to a hardline clerical successor and the absence of credible challenges or constitutional triggers for another change before year-end. Trader consensus prices in regime continuity amid ongoing regional tensions rather than a rapid shift in leadership structures.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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