Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in a US-Israeli airstrike. The Assembly of Experts quickly appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor under IRGC pressure, with President Masoud Pezeshkian confirming a personal meeting on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling leadership continuity. Despite Pahlavi's March-April declarations of readiness for a transitional role, backed by diaspora rallies and speeches urging US-Israel support for regime change, opposition divisions, suppressed protests, and absent military defections underscore significant barriers to his return, even as economic strains and Hormuz tensions persist without triggering collapse.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$1,172,176 Vol.
$1,172,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$1,172,176 Vol.
$1,172,176 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in a US-Israeli airstrike. The Assembly of Experts quickly appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor under IRGC pressure, with President Masoud Pezeshkian confirming a personal meeting on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling leadership continuity. Despite Pahlavi's March-April declarations of readiness for a transitional role, backed by diaspora rallies and speeches urging US-Israel support for regime change, opposition divisions, suppressed protests, and absent military defections underscore significant barriers to his return, even as economic strains and Hormuz tensions persist without triggering collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
音量
$1,172,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in a US-Israeli airstrike. The Assembly of Experts quickly appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor under IRGC pressure, with President Masoud Pezeshkian confirming a personal meeting on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling leadership continuity. Despite Pahlavi's March-April declarations of readiness for a transitional role, backed by diaspora rallies and speeches urging US-Israel support for regime change, opposition divisions, suppressed protests, and absent military defections underscore significant barriers to his return, even as economic strains and Hormuz tensions persist without triggering collapse.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$1,172,176終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 92.2% for Reza Pahlavi leading Iran in 2026, reflecting the Islamic Republic's institutional resilience following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 28 assassination in a US-Israeli airstrike. The Assembly of Experts quickly appointed his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor under IRGC pressure, with President Masoud Pezeshkian confirming a personal meeting on May 7 amid health rumors, signaling leadership continuity. Despite Pahlavi's March-April declarations of readiness for a transitional role, backed by diaspora rallies and speeches urging US-Israel support for regime change, opposition divisions, suppressed protests, and absent military defections underscore significant barriers to his return, even as economic strains and Hormuz tensions persist without triggering collapse.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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