Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew and rescuers, represent the primary catalyst elevating war-risk premiums to 0.5–0.75 percent of hull value and sustaining rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Ongoing Saudi shipping blockade effects have already compressed weekly transits to the 260–270 range in late July, down sharply from pre-escalation levels near 350, with traffic stabilizing amid elevated insurance costs and selective diversions. Closely matched 40 percent probabilities on the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets reflect trader uncertainty over whether the latest fatalities will trigger further volume contraction or allow modest recovery, while sub-160 and 200+ outcomes price in tail risks from intensified conflict or rapid de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日160-179 43%
180〜199 32%
160未満 23%
200以上 17%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
160未満
22%
160-179
43%
180〜199
32%
200以上
23%
160-179 43%
180〜199 32%
160未満 23%
200以上 17%
新規
新規
2026/08/23
160未満
$372 Vol.
22%
160-179
$0 Vol.
43%
180〜199
$0 Vol.
32%
200以上
$5 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew and rescuers, represent the primary catalyst elevating war-risk premiums to 0.5–0.75 percent of hull value and sustaining rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Ongoing Saudi shipping blockade effects have already compressed weekly transits to the 260–270 range in late July, down sharply from pre-escalation levels near 350, with traffic stabilizing amid elevated insurance costs and selective diversions. Closely matched 40 percent probabilities on the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets reflect trader uncertainty over whether the latest fatalities will trigger further volume contraction or allow modest recovery, while sub-160 and 200+ outcomes price in tail risks from intensified conflict or rapid de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
マーケット開始日： Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
音量
$377終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew and rescuers, represent the primary catalyst elevating war-risk premiums to 0.5–0.75 percent of hull value and sustaining rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Ongoing Saudi shipping blockade effects have already compressed weekly transits to the 260–270 range in late July, down sharply from pre-escalation levels near 350, with traffic stabilizing amid elevated insurance costs and selective diversions. Closely matched 40 percent probabilities on the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets reflect trader uncertainty over whether the latest fatalities will trigger further volume contraction or allow modest recovery, while sub-160 and 200+ outcomes price in tail risks from intensified conflict or rapid de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
音量
$377終了日
2026/08/23マーケット開始日
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, including the August 11 strike that killed six crew and rescuers, represent the primary catalyst elevating war-risk premiums to 0.5–0.75 percent of hull value and sustaining rerouting incentives around the Cape of Good Hope. Ongoing Saudi shipping blockade effects have already compressed weekly transits to the 260–270 range in late July, down sharply from pre-escalation levels near 350, with traffic stabilizing amid elevated insurance costs and selective diversions. Closely matched 40 percent probabilities on the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets reflect trader uncertainty over whether the latest fatalities will trigger further volume contraction or allow modest recovery, while sub-160 and 200+ outcomes price in tail risks from intensified conflict or rapid de-escalation.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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