Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 74.5% for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war initiated by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear sites and leadership in late February. President Trump's May 5 announcement of progress in indirect Oman-mediated nuclear talks prompted a pause in Project Freedom naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, lowering escalation risks after a fragile April ceasefire. Yesterday's House tie vote blocked a war powers resolution demanding congressional authorization for continued strikes, sustaining air and naval pressure without ground commitments. U.S. intelligence reported Iran's restored missile capabilities on May 14, heightening tensions, but traders weigh high costs—estimated at $25 billion—political opposition, and partially met objectives like missile degradation against full invasion barriers. No major ground plans have advanced despite earlier Pentagon options.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$28,236,007 Vol.
$28,236,007 Vol.
はい
$28,236,007 Vol.
$28,236,007 Vol.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 74.5% for a U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war initiated by U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on nuclear sites and leadership in late February. President Trump's May 5 announcement of progress in indirect Oman-mediated nuclear talks prompted a pause in Project Freedom naval operations in the Strait of Hormuz, lowering escalation risks after a fragile April ceasefire. Yesterday's House tie vote blocked a war powers resolution demanding congressional authorization for continued strikes, sustaining air and naval pressure without ground commitments. U.S. intelligence reported Iran's restored missile capabilities on May 14, heightening tensions, but traders weigh high costs—estimated at $25 billion—political opposition, and partially met objectives like missile degradation against full invasion barriers. No major ground plans have advanced despite earlier Pentagon options.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問