Ongoing diplomatic negotiations following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and subsequent ceasefire have anchored trader expectations against a full U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June memorandum of understanding opened a 60-day window for talks on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and Iran's nuclear program, including IAEA inspector returns, though August 2026 discussions remain deadlocked over Hormuz control and enrichment limits. These developments, combined with economic reconstruction proposals and mutual de-escalation signals, reflect a preference for pressure and bargaining over ground operations. Historical patterns of limited airstrikes rather than occupation, plus the absence of recent troop deployment indicators, further support the current implied probability for "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
18% 確率
$58,563,039 Vol.
$58,563,039 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
18% 確率
$58,563,039 Vol.
$58,563,039 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and subsequent ceasefire have anchored trader expectations against a full U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June memorandum of understanding opened a 60-day window for talks on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and Iran's nuclear program, including IAEA inspector returns, though August 2026 discussions remain deadlocked over Hormuz control and enrichment limits. These developments, combined with economic reconstruction proposals and mutual de-escalation signals, reflect a preference for pressure and bargaining over ground operations. Historical patterns of limited airstrikes rather than occupation, plus the absence of recent troop deployment indicators, further support the current implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
音量
$58,563,039終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Ongoing diplomatic negotiations following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and subsequent ceasefire have anchored trader expectations against a full U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June memorandum of understanding opened a 60-day window for talks on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and Iran's nuclear program, including IAEA inspector returns, though August 2026 discussions remain deadlocked over Hormuz control and enrichment limits. These developments, combined with economic reconstruction proposals and mutual de-escalation signals, reflect a preference for pressure and bargaining over ground operations. Historical patterns of limited airstrikes rather than occupation, plus the absence of recent troop deployment indicators, further support the current implied probability for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
音量
$58,563,039終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing diplomatic negotiations following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes and subsequent ceasefire have anchored trader expectations against a full U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June memorandum of understanding opened a 60-day window for talks on sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and Iran's nuclear program, including IAEA inspector returns, though August 2026 discussions remain deadlocked over Hormuz control and enrichment limits. These developments, combined with economic reconstruction proposals and mutual de-escalation signals, reflect a preference for pressure and bargaining over ground operations. Historical patterns of limited airstrikes rather than occupation, plus the absence of recent troop deployment indicators, further support the current implied probability for "No."
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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