Escalating US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, including recent ship attacks, renewed blockades, and mine threats, are driving trader focus on naval responses through the critical oil transit route that handles roughly 20% of global supply. US Navy destroyers have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and mine-clearance operations amid the July ceasefire breakdown, while oil benchmarks like Brent crude have shown volatility tied to shipping disruptions and insurance premia. A US-UK planned London conference on an international maritime coalition, expected imminently, highlights potential allied asset deployments such as demining vessels and escorts, which could influence resolution probabilities before the August 31 cutoff. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk assessing these dynamics against historical precedents of coalition responses to chokepoint threats, with upcoming data on tanker transits and energy inventory releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日新規
2026/08/31
アメリカ合衆国
24%
イギリス
6%
フランス
5%
ドイツ
5%
オランダ
5%
オーストラリア
4%
ギリシャ
3%
イタリア
2%
$2,420 Vol.
アメリカ合衆国
$633 Vol.
24%
イギリス
$301 Vol.
6%
フランス
$0 Vol.
5%
ドイツ
$519 Vol.
5%
オランダ
$0 Vol.
5%
オーストラリア
$851 Vol.
4%
ギリシャ
$31 Vol.
3%
イタリア
$85 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, including recent ship attacks, renewed blockades, and mine threats, are driving trader focus on naval responses through the critical oil transit route that handles roughly 20% of global supply. US Navy destroyers have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and mine-clearance operations amid the July ceasefire breakdown, while oil benchmarks like Brent crude have shown volatility tied to shipping disruptions and insurance premia. A US-UK planned London conference on an international maritime coalition, expected imminently, highlights potential allied asset deployments such as demining vessels and escorts, which could influence resolution probabilities before the August 31 cutoff. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk assessing these dynamics against historical precedents of coalition responses to chokepoint threats, with upcoming data on tanker transits and energy inventory releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
マーケット開始日： Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
音量
$2,420終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, including recent ship attacks, renewed blockades, and mine threats, are driving trader focus on naval responses through the critical oil transit route that handles roughly 20% of global supply. US Navy destroyers have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and mine-clearance operations amid the July ceasefire breakdown, while oil benchmarks like Brent crude have shown volatility tied to shipping disruptions and insurance premia. A US-UK planned London conference on an international maritime coalition, expected imminently, highlights potential allied asset deployments such as demining vessels and escorts, which could influence resolution probabilities before the August 31 cutoff. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk assessing these dynamics against historical precedents of coalition responses to chokepoint threats, with upcoming data on tanker transits and energy inventory releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
音量
$2,420終了日
2026/08/31マーケット開始日
Jul 31, 2026, 10:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating US-Iran hostilities over the Strait of Hormuz, including recent ship attacks, renewed blockades, and mine threats, are driving trader focus on naval responses through the critical oil transit route that handles roughly 20% of global supply. US Navy destroyers have conducted freedom-of-navigation transits and mine-clearance operations amid the July ceasefire breakdown, while oil benchmarks like Brent crude have shown volatility tied to shipping disruptions and insurance premia. A US-UK planned London conference on an international maritime coalition, expected imminently, highlights potential allied asset deployments such as demining vessels and escorts, which could influence resolution probabilities before the August 31 cutoff. Market-implied odds reflect aggregated capital at risk assessing these dynamics against historical precedents of coalition responses to chokepoint threats, with upcoming data on tanker transits and energy inventory releases serving as key near-term catalysts.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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