Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$71,135 Vol.
2026/09/30
9月30日
3%
$71,135 Vol.
9月30日
$858 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
音量
$71,135終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$71,135終了日
2026/10/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island through IRGC naval and coastal forces, positioning it as one of seven strategic islands forming a defensive arc that monitors and influences traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. As of September 2026, Iranian officials continue to assert administrative and military authority over the waterway, including recent announcements of expanded sanctions zones and restricted shipping corridors extending beyond the strait, alongside ongoing strikes on vessels to deter non-compliant routes. These steps follow a period of US-Iran maritime clashes and interim diplomatic efforts, with Tehran prioritizing institutional mechanisms such as the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to formalize its position. No verified foreign military operations have altered Iranian sovereignty on the island, though broader regional tensions involving US naval presence and alternative transit proposals remain active variables.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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