Iran's repeated parliamentary proposals and hardliner calls for NPT withdrawal, including legislation advanced amid 2025-2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have not translated into formal action. Recent damage to enrichment facilities and the broader nuclear program has constrained Tehran's leverage and raised the diplomatic costs of exit, which would trigger IAEA safeguards termination and intensified sanctions. Traders view these threats primarily as bargaining tools amid stalled negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, with no verified steps toward withdrawal in the months since major strikes. Upcoming diplomatic windows and Iran's focus on infrastructure recovery further support the high probability assigned to remaining in the treaty through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
10% 確率
$334,206 Vol.
$334,206 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
10% 確率
$334,206 Vol.
$334,206 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's repeated parliamentary proposals and hardliner calls for NPT withdrawal, including legislation advanced amid 2025-2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have not translated into formal action. Recent damage to enrichment facilities and the broader nuclear program has constrained Tehran's leverage and raised the diplomatic costs of exit, which would trigger IAEA safeguards termination and intensified sanctions. Traders view these threats primarily as bargaining tools amid stalled negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, with no verified steps toward withdrawal in the months since major strikes. Upcoming diplomatic windows and Iran's focus on infrastructure recovery further support the high probability assigned to remaining in the treaty through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$334,206終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iran's repeated parliamentary proposals and hardliner calls for NPT withdrawal, including legislation advanced amid 2025-2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have not translated into formal action. Recent damage to enrichment facilities and the broader nuclear program has constrained Tehran's leverage and raised the diplomatic costs of exit, which would trigger IAEA safeguards termination and intensified sanctions. Traders view these threats primarily as bargaining tools amid stalled negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, with no verified steps toward withdrawal in the months since major strikes. Upcoming diplomatic windows and Iran's focus on infrastructure recovery further support the high probability assigned to remaining in the treaty through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$334,206終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's repeated parliamentary proposals and hardliner calls for NPT withdrawal, including legislation advanced amid 2025-2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes on nuclear sites and the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, have not translated into formal action. Recent damage to enrichment facilities and the broader nuclear program has constrained Tehran's leverage and raised the diplomatic costs of exit, which would trigger IAEA safeguards termination and intensified sanctions. Traders view these threats primarily as bargaining tools amid stalled negotiations rather than imminent policy shifts, with no verified steps toward withdrawal in the months since major strikes. Upcoming diplomatic windows and Iran's focus on infrastructure recovery further support the high probability assigned to remaining in the treaty through 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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