Trader consensus prices "No" at 88% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism over Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating tensions. In late March 2026, Iran's parliament fast-tracked a bill proposing NPT exit in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, citing inspections as enabling espionage, but no vote has occurred and formal Article X notice—requiring three months—remains unissued. Tehran continues limited IAEA safeguards cooperation, using withdrawal warnings as diplomatic leverage rather than committing to isolation, intensified sanctions, or proliferation risks that could invite further military action or snap-back UN measures before the 2027 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$121,542 Vol.
$121,542 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$121,542 Vol.
$121,542 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 88% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism over Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating tensions. In late March 2026, Iran's parliament fast-tracked a bill proposing NPT exit in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, citing inspections as enabling espionage, but no vote has occurred and formal Article X notice—requiring three months—remains unissued. Tehran continues limited IAEA safeguards cooperation, using withdrawal warnings as diplomatic leverage rather than committing to isolation, intensified sanctions, or proliferation risks that could invite further military action or snap-back UN measures before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
音量
$121,542終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices "No" at 88% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism over Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating tensions. In late March 2026, Iran's parliament fast-tracked a bill proposing NPT exit in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, citing inspections as enabling espionage, but no vote has occurred and formal Article X notice—requiring three months—remains unissued. Tehran continues limited IAEA safeguards cooperation, using withdrawal warnings as diplomatic leverage rather than committing to isolation, intensified sanctions, or proliferation risks that could invite further military action or snap-back UN measures before the 2027 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$121,542終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 88% implied probability that Iran will not withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, reflecting skepticism over Tehran's repeated rhetorical threats amid escalating tensions. In late March 2026, Iran's parliament fast-tracked a bill proposing NPT exit in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on nuclear sites, citing inspections as enabling espionage, but no vote has occurred and formal Article X notice—requiring three months—remains unissued. Tehran continues limited IAEA safeguards cooperation, using withdrawal warnings as diplomatic leverage rather than committing to isolation, intensified sanctions, or proliferation risks that could invite further military action or snap-back UN measures before the 2027 deadline.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問