Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons, combined with prior military strikes on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have substantially degraded Tehran's infrastructure and extended breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Limited IAEA access, halted enrichment activity, and ongoing diplomatic talks focused on sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable restraints reinforce trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. A sudden collapse in negotiations or undetected reconstitution of weaponization efforts at dispersed sites could still alter this trajectory within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
$246,340 Vol.
$246,340 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons, combined with prior military strikes on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have substantially degraded Tehran's infrastructure and extended breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Limited IAEA access, halted enrichment activity, and ongoing diplomatic talks focused on sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable restraints reinforce trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. A sudden collapse in negotiations or undetected reconstitution of weaponization efforts at dispersed sites could still alter this trajectory within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
音量
$246,340終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons, combined with prior military strikes on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have substantially degraded Tehran's infrastructure and extended breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Limited IAEA access, halted enrichment activity, and ongoing diplomatic talks focused on sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable restraints reinforce trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. A sudden collapse in negotiations or undetected reconstitution of weaponization efforts at dispersed sites could still alter this trajectory within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$246,340終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 2026 memorandum of understanding in which Iran reaffirmed it will not procure or develop nuclear weapons, combined with prior military strikes on enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, have substantially degraded Tehran's infrastructure and extended breakout timelines according to U.S. intelligence assessments. Limited IAEA access, halted enrichment activity, and ongoing diplomatic talks focused on sanctions relief in exchange for verifiable restraints reinforce trader expectations that a nuclear test remains improbable before 2027. A sudden collapse in negotiations or undetected reconstitution of weaponization efforts at dispersed sites could still alter this trajectory within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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