Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain the central driver of trader sentiment, with the United States demanding a full halt or extended moratorium on uranium enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its enrichment rights and proposes measures such as downblending its 60% material. Recent statements from President Trump indicating openness to a 20-year suspension if verifiably guaranteed, contrasted with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s reports of deadlock over enrichment limits, sustain the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for a public agreement by December 31. Key variables that could shift odds include a verified joint statement incorporating IAEA oversight, successful downblending commitments, or renewed impasse tied to sanctions relief and facility restrictions, all of which traders weigh against historical patterns of protracted diplomacy in similar talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$194,984 Vol.
$194,984 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain the central driver of trader sentiment, with the United States demanding a full halt or extended moratorium on uranium enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its enrichment rights and proposes measures such as downblending its 60% material. Recent statements from President Trump indicating openness to a 20-year suspension if verifiably guaranteed, contrasted with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s reports of deadlock over enrichment limits, sustain the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for a public agreement by December 31. Key variables that could shift odds include a verified joint statement incorporating IAEA oversight, successful downblending commitments, or renewed impasse tied to sanctions relief and facility restrictions, all of which traders weigh against historical patterns of protracted diplomacy in similar talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
音量
$194,984終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain the central driver of trader sentiment, with the United States demanding a full halt or extended moratorium on uranium enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its enrichment rights and proposes measures such as downblending its 60% material. Recent statements from President Trump indicating openness to a 20-year suspension if verifiably guaranteed, contrasted with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s reports of deadlock over enrichment limits, sustain the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for a public agreement by December 31. Key variables that could shift odds include a verified joint statement incorporating IAEA oversight, successful downblending commitments, or renewed impasse tied to sanctions relief and facility restrictions, all of which traders weigh against historical patterns of protracted diplomacy in similar talks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$194,984終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations remain the central driver of trader sentiment, with the United States demanding a full halt or extended moratorium on uranium enrichment alongside stockpile removal, while Iran asserts its enrichment rights and proposes measures such as downblending its 60% material. Recent statements from President Trump indicating openness to a 20-year suspension if verifiably guaranteed, contrasted with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s reports of deadlock over enrichment limits, sustain the closely balanced 52.5% implied probability for a public agreement by December 31. Key variables that could shift odds include a verified joint statement incorporating IAEA oversight, successful downblending commitments, or renewed impasse tied to sanctions relief and facility restrictions, all of which traders weigh against historical patterns of protracted diplomacy in similar talks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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