Recent US-Israeli strikes in 2025 and March 2026 severely damaged or destroyed Iran's main enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, halting active uranium enrichment and leaving much of the pre-strike stockpile of roughly 440 kg of 60% material inaccessible or buried. The IAEA has had no verification access since mid-2025 and reports no confirmed resumption of cascades or weaponization activity, while satellite imagery shows reconstruction efforts at secondary sites but no rapid restoration of industrial-scale capacity. Ongoing diplomatic talks emphasize demands for verifiable cuts in enrichment infrastructure, and Iran's public stance prioritizes retaining its program without immediate breakout signals. This physical and monitoring reality underpins trader consensus on low near-term risk. Scenarios that could still shift probabilities include accelerated rebuilding at hardened tunnel complexes, recovery of surviving highly enriched uranium, or major diplomatic concessions that ease sanctions and enable faster reconstitution within the 14-month window.