US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$602,008 Vol.
$602,008 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$602,008 Vol.
$602,008 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
マーケット開始日： Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET
音量
$602,008終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
音量
$602,008終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments released early May 2026 confirm Iran's nuclear breakout timeline remains 9-12 months for a functional weapon, unchanged despite US-Israeli airstrikes in February that targeted facilities like Natanz and Bushehr but left its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium largely intact and unaccounted for underground. IAEA reports from February-April note Tehran's restricted access to inspectors and no restart of higher enrichment, while Iran's envoy affirmed no pursuit of weapons-grade levels. This skin-in-the-game trader consensus at 91% "No" reflects deterrence from ongoing US naval pressures and diplomatic stalemates, though sudden weaponization decisions or undetected advances could shift odds before year-end resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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