US intelligence assessments from March 2026, including the ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, driving trader consensus to 95.5% against an invasion by September 30 amid absent indicators of amphibious buildup or mass mobilization in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People's Liberation Army exercises in April, such as Western Pacific drills, reflect ongoing pressure tactics rather than invasion preparations, compounded by China's economic challenges, logistical hurdles for a cross-strait assault, and deterrence from US-Japan alliances. While near-certain, odds could shift via sudden escalation like a blockade, cyber operations, or Taiwan political crisis before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$461,403 Vol.
$461,403 Vol.
2026/09/30
はい
$461,403 Vol.
$461,403 Vol.
2026/09/30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026, including the ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, driving trader consensus to 95.5% against an invasion by September 30 amid absent indicators of amphibious buildup or mass mobilization in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People's Liberation Army exercises in April, such as Western Pacific drills, reflect ongoing pressure tactics rather than invasion preparations, compounded by China's economic challenges, logistical hurdles for a cross-strait assault, and deterrence from US-Japan alliances. While near-certain, odds could shift via sudden escalation like a blockade, cyber operations, or Taiwan political crisis before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
音量
$461,403終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence assessments from March 2026, including the ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, driving trader consensus to 95.5% against an invasion by September 30 amid absent indicators of amphibious buildup or mass mobilization in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People's Liberation Army exercises in April, such as Western Pacific drills, reflect ongoing pressure tactics rather than invasion preparations, compounded by China's economic challenges, logistical hurdles for a cross-strait assault, and deterrence from US-Japan alliances. While near-certain, odds could shift via sudden escalation like a blockade, cyber operations, or Taiwan political crisis before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$461,403終了日
2026/09/30マーケット開始日
Mar 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments from March 2026, including the ODNI Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders do not plan a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and lack a fixed unification timeline, driving trader consensus to 95.5% against an invasion by September 30 amid absent indicators of amphibious buildup or mass mobilization in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People's Liberation Army exercises in April, such as Western Pacific drills, reflect ongoing pressure tactics rather than invasion preparations, compounded by China's economic challenges, logistical hurdles for a cross-strait assault, and deterrence from US-Japan alliances. While near-certain, odds could shift via sudden escalation like a blockade, cyber operations, or Taiwan political crisis before resolution.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問