Traders assign a 99.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of any verifiable large-scale amphibious preparations or escalatory military deployments in the past month. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of the island, routine air incursions, and joint exercises with Russia, yet these fall short of invasion thresholds. Taiwan’s August Han Kuang drills, including record reservist mobilization, underscore defensive readiness without triggering acute crisis. U.S. assessments note China’s preference for unification without force due to high operational risks and economic costs, while the narrow remaining window leaves little room for the logistical buildup required for a full-scale operation. Sudden diplomatic miscalculation or unforeseen trigger could theoretically shift dynamics before resolution.