Russia’s ongoing war of attrition in Ukraine continues to absorb the bulk of its military resources, with forces achieving only incremental territorial gains in Donbas amid record casualty rates and Ukrainian deep strikes on energy and military targets. Recent exchanges, including Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian industrial sites in August 2026 and Russian missile barrages, underscore the grinding nature of the conflict without evidence of preparations for operations against additional neighbors. Traders assign a 95.5% implied probability to no new invasion this year, reflecting Russia’s manpower constraints, economic pressures, and focus on sustaining the current front. While hybrid tensions with NATO persist, a sudden shift toward another conventional campaign remains improbable absent major unforeseen escalation or leadership changes.