Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to absorb the bulk of its ground forces, equipment, and logistical capacity, with recent assessments showing incremental advances in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts alongside cross-border strikes rather than preparations for new fronts. Diplomatic signals and hybrid activities toward NATO or neighbors like Georgia remain contained to existing tensions without escalation toward conventional invasion thresholds. Traders price the 94.5% probability on "No" around this sustained resource strain and absence of verifiable mobilization or positioning indicating expansion beyond Ukraine in the remainder of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
6% 確率
$397,866 Vol.
$397,866 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
6% 確率
$397,866 Vol.
$397,866 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to absorb the bulk of its ground forces, equipment, and logistical capacity, with recent assessments showing incremental advances in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts alongside cross-border strikes rather than preparations for new fronts. Diplomatic signals and hybrid activities toward NATO or neighbors like Georgia remain contained to existing tensions without escalation toward conventional invasion thresholds. Traders price the 94.5% probability on "No" around this sustained resource strain and absence of verifiable mobilization or positioning indicating expansion beyond Ukraine in the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
音量
$397,866終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to absorb the bulk of its ground forces, equipment, and logistical capacity, with recent assessments showing incremental advances in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts alongside cross-border strikes rather than preparations for new fronts. Diplomatic signals and hybrid activities toward NATO or neighbors like Georgia remain contained to existing tensions without escalation toward conventional invasion thresholds. Traders price the 94.5% probability on "No" around this sustained resource strain and absence of verifiable mobilization or positioning indicating expansion beyond Ukraine in the remainder of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$397,866終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to absorb the bulk of its ground forces, equipment, and logistical capacity, with recent assessments showing incremental advances in Donetsk and Sumy oblasts alongside cross-border strikes rather than preparations for new fronts. Diplomatic signals and hybrid activities toward NATO or neighbors like Georgia remain contained to existing tensions without escalation toward conventional invasion thresholds. Traders price the 94.5% probability on "No" around this sustained resource strain and absence of verifiable mobilization or positioning indicating expansion beyond Ukraine in the remainder of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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