Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to strain manpower, equipment, and logistics, with recent net territorial losses and high casualties anchoring trader expectations against any new invasion this year. President Putin's May 9 statement that the Ukraine conflict is approaching an end, alongside a U.S.-backed three-day ceasefire around Victory Day, signals a focus on de-escalation rather than expansion. No verified troop movements or official directives target additional countries such as Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO presence adds further deterrence. A May 13 parliamentary bill expanding authority to deploy forces abroad under certain pretexts has drawn attention but produced no immediate action or shifts in positioning. These factors sustain the 88.5% implied probability on "No" through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
$164,843 Vol.
$164,843 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
$164,843 Vol.
$164,843 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to strain manpower, equipment, and logistics, with recent net territorial losses and high casualties anchoring trader expectations against any new invasion this year. President Putin's May 9 statement that the Ukraine conflict is approaching an end, alongside a U.S.-backed three-day ceasefire around Victory Day, signals a focus on de-escalation rather than expansion. No verified troop movements or official directives target additional countries such as Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO presence adds further deterrence. A May 13 parliamentary bill expanding authority to deploy forces abroad under certain pretexts has drawn attention but produced no immediate action or shifts in positioning. These factors sustain the 88.5% implied probability on "No" through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
音量
$164,843終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to strain manpower, equipment, and logistics, with recent net territorial losses and high casualties anchoring trader expectations against any new invasion this year. President Putin's May 9 statement that the Ukraine conflict is approaching an end, alongside a U.S.-backed three-day ceasefire around Victory Day, signals a focus on de-escalation rather than expansion. No verified troop movements or official directives target additional countries such as Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO presence adds further deterrence. A May 13 parliamentary bill expanding authority to deploy forces abroad under certain pretexts has drawn attention but produced no immediate action or shifts in positioning. These factors sustain the 88.5% implied probability on "No" through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$164,843終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's ongoing military operations in Ukraine, now in their fifth year, continue to strain manpower, equipment, and logistics, with recent net territorial losses and high casualties anchoring trader expectations against any new invasion this year. President Putin's May 9 statement that the Ukraine conflict is approaching an end, alongside a U.S.-backed three-day ceasefire around Victory Day, signals a focus on de-escalation rather than expansion. No verified troop movements or official directives target additional countries such as Moldova or the Baltics, where NATO presence adds further deterrence. A May 13 parliamentary bill expanding authority to deploy forces abroad under certain pretexts has drawn attention but produced no immediate action or shifts in positioning. These factors sustain the 88.5% implied probability on "No" through year-end.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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