Tensions between the United States and Colombia have risen since early 2025 over counternarcotics policy, deportation flights, and Venezuela-related actions, including U.S. sanctions, tariff threats, and sharp rhetoric from President Trump toward President Petro. These frictions peaked in January 2026 after the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro but de-escalated through direct presidential contact and economic pressure rather than force. Colombia maintains its status as a major non-NATO ally with longstanding military-to-military cooperation under U.S. Southern Command, shared intelligence frameworks, and no reported troop movements or congressional authorization for offensive operations. Traders price the 93.5% probability of no invasion by year-end on the absence of any structural shift toward military confrontation, the preference for diplomatic and financial tools, and Colombia’s upcoming 2026 presidential election as a potential reset point.