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icon for 米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？
地政学·ベネズエラ

米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？

icon for 米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？
地政学·ベネズエラ

米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？

はい

6% 確率
Polymarket

$106,343 Vol.

はい

6% 確率
Polymarket

$106,343 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any U.S. troop deployments, congressional war authorization, or official plans for territorial control in Mexico continues to anchor trader consensus against an invasion in 2026. Heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration on targeting drug cartels through strikes or expanded intelligence sharing has prompted diplomatic pushback from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has repeatedly rejected ground forces while advancing bilateral cooperation on fentanyl interdiction and cartel operations. Recent joint efforts, including U.S.-provided intelligence for Mexican-led raids, have produced measurable security gains without crossing into offensive occupation. Structural barriers, including Mexico’s sovereignty protections, U.S. legal requirements for major military action, and deep economic integration under USMCA, further reinforce the low implied probability of full-scale invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$106,343
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The absence of any U.S. troop deployments, congressional war authorization, or official plans for territorial control in Mexico continues to anchor trader consensus against an invasion in 2026. Heightened rhetoric from the Trump administration on targeting drug cartels through strikes or expanded intelligence sharing has prompted diplomatic pushback from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has repeatedly rejected ground forces while advancing bilateral cooperation on fentanyl interdiction and cartel operations. Recent joint efforts, including U.S.-provided intelligence for Mexican-led raids, have produced measurable security gains without crossing into offensive occupation. Structural barriers, including Mexico’s sovereignty protections, U.S. legal requirements for major military action, and deep economic integration under USMCA, further reinforce the low implied probability of full-scale invasion.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$106,343
終了日
2026/12/31
マーケット開始日
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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よくある質問

「米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？」はPolymarket上の2個の結果が可能な予測市場で、トレーダーが何が起こるかに基づいてシェアを売買します。現在のリード結果は「2026年にアメリカはメキシコを侵攻しますか？」で6%です。価格はコミュニティのリアルタイム確率を反映しています。例えば、6¢で取引されているシェアは、市場がその結果に6%の確率を集合的に割り当てていることを意味します。これらのオッズは継続的に変化します。正しい結果のシェアは市場決済時に各$1で引き換え可能です。

本日現在、「米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？」は$106.3Kの総取引量を生み出しています（Jan 5, 2026のマーケット開始以来）。この取引活動レベルはPolymarketコミュニティの強い関与を反映し、現在のオッズが幅広い市場参加者によって形成されていることを保証します。このページで直接、ライブの価格変動を追跡し、任意の結果で取引できます。

「米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？」で取引するには、このページに記載されている2個の利用可能な結果を閲覧します。各結果には市場の暗示確率を表す現在の価格が表示されています。ポジションを取るには、最も可能性が高いと思う結果を選び、「はい」で支持するか「いいえ」で反対するかを選択し、金額を入力して「取引」をクリックします。選んだ結果が市場決済時に正しければ、「はい」のシェアは各$1を支払います。正しくなければ$0です。決済前にいつでもシェアを売却できます。

これは非常に拮抗した市場です。「米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？」の現在のリーダーは「2026年にアメリカはメキシコを侵攻しますか？」でわずか6%です。どの結果も強い多数派を占めていないため、トレーダーはこれを非常に不確実と見ており、独自の取引機会を提供する可能性があります。これらのオッズはリアルタイムで更新されますので、このページをブックマークしてください。

「米国は2026年にメキシコを侵略するのか？」の決済ルールは、各結果が勝者と宣言されるために何が起こる必要があるかを正確に定義しています。これには結果を決定するために使用される公式データソースも含まれます。このページのコメント上にある「ルール」セクションで完全な決済基準を確認できます。取引前にルールを注意深く読むことをお勧めします。