**Trader consensus clusters around 180–239 tweets for the August 11–18 window, with the 200–219 bin leading at 18% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Elon Musk’s established baseline of 25–35 posts per day on X, driven by his role as platform owner and habit of frequent replies, memes, company updates, and real-time commentary across Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. Recent tracking data from similar weekly markets shows consistent volume in this range absent major catalysts, while August’s typically lighter news cycle limits upside spikes. Key swing factors include any Starship test timing, earnings-related announcements, or unexpected political engagement that could push daily output toward or beyond 40 posts. The tight spread among top bins underscores how traders weigh his predictable cadence against the potential for short-term volatility tied to breaking developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日200-219 18%
180-199 17%
220-239 15%
160-179 14%
$37,277 Vol.
$37,277 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
11%
160-179
14%
180-199
17%
200-219
18%
220-239
15%
240-259
10%
260-279
9%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
200-219 18%
180-199 17%
220-239 15%
160-179 14%
$37,277 Vol.
$37,277 Vol.
<20
<1%
20-39
<1%
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
11%
160-179
14%
180-199
17%
200-219
18%
220-239
15%
240-259
10%
260-279
9%
280-299
3%
300-319
2%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
マーケット開始日： Aug 8, 2026, 12:00 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clusters around 180–239 tweets for the August 11–18 window, with the 200–219 bin leading at 18% implied probability.** This positioning reflects Elon Musk’s established baseline of 25–35 posts per day on X, driven by his role as platform owner and habit of frequent replies, memes, company updates, and real-time commentary across Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI. Recent tracking data from similar weekly markets shows consistent volume in this range absent major catalysts, while August’s typically lighter news cycle limits upside spikes. Key swing factors include any Starship test timing, earnings-related announcements, or unexpected political engagement that could push daily output toward or beyond 40 posts. The tight spread among top bins underscores how traders weigh his predictable cadence against the potential for short-term volatility tied to breaking developments.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問