US-Venezuela relations have stabilized following a January 2026 US special forces raid that captured Nicolás Maduro at Fuerte Tiuna military base, leading to his ouster without establishing broader territorial control or prolonged occupation—a distinction central to Polymarket's resolution criteria and subsequent payout disputes. By March 2026, Washington and Venezuela's interim authorities under Delcy Rodríguez reestablished full diplomatic and consular ties, lifted key sanctions, and advanced debt restructuring to attract investment, signaling de-escalation. No military escalations, troop deployments, or diplomatic breakdowns have occurred in the past 30 days, with trader consensus reflecting low implied probabilities amid normalized bilateral engagement and absence of catalysts like sanctions reimposition or regional instability.