U.S. military action against Venezuela peaked with Operation Absolute Resolve on January 3, 2026, when special forces and targeted strikes captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife amid a prior naval buildup and strikes on drug vessels, but stopped short of sustained ground occupation or regime change by invasion. Diplomatic relations resumed by March 2026 under interim leadership, shifting focus to sanctions, oil policy enforcement, and pressure on remaining officials rather than broader hostilities. Trader consensus on any near-term full-scale U.S. invasion remains low due to the absence of large troop deployments, congressional authorization debates under the War Powers Resolution, and regional diplomatic pushback. Upcoming factors include Venezuelan political transitions, potential elections, and any escalation tied to narcotics or energy disputes that could alter positioning.