Traders assign a 96.7% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed health disclosures, official statements, or institutional pressures indicating an early exit. In his second term, Trump continues advancing policy priorities through executive actions, with Republican congressional majorities limiting realistic impeachment or removal pathways ahead of the 2026 midterms. Speculation from opposition figures about post-election frustration has surfaced but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration signals. Low-probability scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event triggering constitutional succession, unforeseen legal developments, or an unanticipated personal decision, though none currently appear imminent within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$527,781 Vol.
$527,781 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$527,781 Vol.
$527,781 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.7% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed health disclosures, official statements, or institutional pressures indicating an early exit. In his second term, Trump continues advancing policy priorities through executive actions, with Republican congressional majorities limiting realistic impeachment or removal pathways ahead of the 2026 midterms. Speculation from opposition figures about post-election frustration has surfaced but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration signals. Low-probability scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event triggering constitutional succession, unforeseen legal developments, or an unanticipated personal decision, though none currently appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
音量
$527,781終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Traders assign a 96.7% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed health disclosures, official statements, or institutional pressures indicating an early exit. In his second term, Trump continues advancing policy priorities through executive actions, with Republican congressional majorities limiting realistic impeachment or removal pathways ahead of the 2026 midterms. Speculation from opposition figures about post-election frustration has surfaced but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration signals. Low-probability scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event triggering constitutional succession, unforeseen legal developments, or an unanticipated personal decision, though none currently appear imminent within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
音量
$527,781終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Traders assign a 96.7% implied probability against Donald Trump resigning by December 31, 2026, reflecting the historical rarity of presidential resignations and the absence of any confirmed health disclosures, official statements, or institutional pressures indicating an early exit. In his second term, Trump continues advancing policy priorities through executive actions, with Republican congressional majorities limiting realistic impeachment or removal pathways ahead of the 2026 midterms. Speculation from opposition figures about post-election frustration has surfaced but lacks supporting evidence from primary sources or administration signals. Low-probability scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical event triggering constitutional succession, unforeseen legal developments, or an unanticipated personal decision, though none currently appear imminent within the resolution window.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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