Traders assign a 93.5 percent probability that Donald Trump will not resign by December 31, 2026, reflecting his position as a sitting president actively advancing administration priorities in the early stages of his term. Since his January 2025 inauguration, the White House has pursued executive actions on immigration enforcement, trade tariffs, and foreign policy initiatives, with no public statements or procedural signals suggesting any departure from the full four-year term. Historical precedent shows presidential resignations remain rare absent acute health crises or overwhelming political reversals, and current conditions lack comparable triggers. Scheduled events such as midterm elections and ongoing legislative negotiations further anchor expectations that the president will remain in office through the resolution date.