Recent U.S. employment data has anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with the September nonfarm payrolls report showing just 29,000 jobs added—well below consensus—and the unemployment rate rising to 4.2%. This softening in labor-market conditions, combined with signals from officials including New York Fed President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson emphasizing the need for more time to evaluate the post-September hike effects, has pushed the market-implied probability of no change to 82.5%. Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI rising 0.4% and core measures remaining above target, sustain a modest 16.5% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. The October 14 CPI release and subsequent data will serve as key inputs before the meeting.
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