Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, combined with the June dot plot showing a divided committee, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation and Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability support the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike, though softer upcoming CPI prints could reinforce the pause. Traders are monitoring September communications and August inflation data for shifts in the rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日据え置き 69%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 23%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 2.5%
$473,282 Vol.
$473,282 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
6%
据え置き
69%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
23%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
2%
据え置き 69%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ 23%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ 6%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ 2.5%
$473,282 Vol.
$473,282 Vol.
2026/10/28
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き下げ
$101,089 Vol.
1%
25ベーシスポイント引き下げ
$118,865 Vol.
6%
据え置き
$102,849 Vol.
69%
25ベーシスポイント引き上げ
$107,852 Vol.
23%
50ベーシスポイント以上の引き上げ
$42,643 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, combined with the June dot plot showing a divided committee, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation and Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability support the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike, though softer upcoming CPI prints could reinforce the pause. Traders are monitoring September communications and August inflation data for shifts in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
マーケット開始日： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
音量
$473,282終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, combined with the June dot plot showing a divided committee, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation and Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability support the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike, though softer upcoming CPI prints could reinforce the pause. Traders are monitoring September communications and August inflation data for shifts in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
音量
$473,282終了日
2026/10/28マーケット開始日
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent inflation readings near 3.5% year-over-year, driven by elevated energy prices from Middle East supply disruptions, have shifted trader focus toward potential policy tightening while the labor market remains stable with unemployment near 4.3%. The Federal Reserve's July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, combined with the June dot plot showing a divided committee, underpins the 68.5% market-implied probability of no change at the October 27–28 FOMC meeting. Persistent upside risks to inflation and Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability support the 22.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike, though softer upcoming CPI prints could reinforce the pause. Traders are monitoring September communications and August inflation data for shifts in the rate path.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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