Trump's public endorsement of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% anchors the 97.9% market-implied probability against any 2026 firing attempt. The president explicitly stated continued confidence in his May 2026 appointee, blamed a "hostile" and "political" board for the unanimous hike amid Iran-driven inflation pressures, and reiterated a preference for Warsh's independence—contrasting sharply with prior attacks on Jerome Powell. This alignment, backed by Warsh's four-year term ending in 2030 and personal ties, sustains trader consensus. Tail risks include sustained inflation reacceleration forcing further tightening before midterms or board-level conflicts that could erode Trump's tolerance for policy divergence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日2% 確率
$29,304 Vol.
$29,304 Vol.
2026/12/31
2% 確率
$29,304 Vol.
$29,304 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's public endorsement of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% anchors the 97.9% market-implied probability against any 2026 firing attempt. The president explicitly stated continued confidence in his May 2026 appointee, blamed a "hostile" and "political" board for the unanimous hike amid Iran-driven inflation pressures, and reiterated a preference for Warsh's independence—contrasting sharply with prior attacks on Jerome Powell. This alignment, backed by Warsh's four-year term ending in 2030 and personal ties, sustains trader consensus. Tail risks include sustained inflation reacceleration forcing further tightening before midterms or board-level conflicts that could erode Trump's tolerance for policy divergence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
音量
$29,304終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's public endorsement of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% anchors the 97.9% market-implied probability against any 2026 firing attempt. The president explicitly stated continued confidence in his May 2026 appointee, blamed a "hostile" and "political" board for the unanimous hike amid Iran-driven inflation pressures, and reiterated a preference for Warsh's independence—contrasting sharply with prior attacks on Jerome Powell. This alignment, backed by Warsh's four-year term ending in 2030 and personal ties, sustains trader consensus. Tail risks include sustained inflation reacceleration forcing further tightening before midterms or board-level conflicts that could erode Trump's tolerance for policy divergence.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$29,304終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Trump's public endorsement of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh after the September 16-17 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% anchors the 97.9% market-implied probability against any 2026 firing attempt. The president explicitly stated continued confidence in his May 2026 appointee, blamed a "hostile" and "political" board for the unanimous hike amid Iran-driven inflation pressures, and reiterated a preference for Warsh's independence—contrasting sharply with prior attacks on Jerome Powell. This alignment, backed by Warsh's four-year term ending in 2030 and personal ties, sustains trader consensus. Tail risks include sustained inflation reacceleration forcing further tightening before midterms or board-level conflicts that could erode Trump's tolerance for policy divergence.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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