The Fed’s September 16 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75–4.00 percent target range, its first hike since 2023, combined with a hawkish Summary of Economic Projections, underpins the 83.5 percent market-implied odds of at least one additional increase before year-end. Sixteen of 18 officials projected further tightening, with the median path reaching 4.1 percent by December 2026, reflecting sticky inflation (August CPI at 3.4 percent year-over-year) and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.1 percent. Traders are pricing roughly even odds for an October move and over 80 percent for December, driven by stronger growth forecasts and geopolitical inflation risks. Upcoming data releases and the October 27–28 and December 8–9 FOMC meetings remain key swing factors, though a rapid cooling in price pressures could still limit the total number of hikes.