Stronger-than-expected October employment data, with 165,000 jobs added against forecasts near 65,000 and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has reinforced the case for further tightening amid resilient growth and persistent price pressures. September CPI came in at 3.7% year-over-year with core at 2.6%, keeping inflation above the Fed’s 2% target and supporting the current 3.75–4.00% federal funds range after the October hold. Market-implied odds reflect this shift, with traders assigning a 76.5% probability to a 25 basis point hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting versus just 21.5% for no change. Key upcoming releases, including October CPI and PCE, will shape the final data-dependent decision before the post-meeting statement.
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