Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 3.4%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
46%
1 (25 bps)
32%
2 (50 bps)
12%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 46%
1 (25 bps) 32%
2 (50 bps) 12%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 3.4%
$135,706 Vol.
$135,706 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
$59,230 Vol.
46%
1 (25 bps)
$19,212 Vol.
32%
2 (50 bps)
$32,523 Vol.
12%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$13,121 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$5,390 Vol.
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$6,230 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
音量
$135,706終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$135,706終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on 2026 Fed rate hikes reflects cooling June 2026 CPI inflation at 3.5% year-over-year, down from 4.2% in May, alongside the June FOMC dot plot's median projection of a 3.75-4.00% federal funds rate by year-end. This implies one 25 basis point hike from the current 3.5-3.75% range, with nine of 18 participants penciling in at least one increase. Market-implied odds favor zero or one hike as the base case given moderating price pressures and labor market data, though new Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on price stability has kept a hawkish tilt in play. The next CPI release on August 12 could shift probabilities ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問