Traders assign the highest implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 at 50.5%, driven by the current policy stance and recent economic releases showing inflation moderating toward target levels alongside resilient but not overheating labor market conditions. The 34.5% odds for one 25-basis-point hike and 15.5% for two underscore limited expectations for further tightening, as forward-looking projections from the Fed's dot plot and Treasury yield curves price in a cautious approach. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and inflation data releases, which could adjust these market-implied odds based on new macroeconomic signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
0 (0 bps) 51%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.8%
$205,277 Vol.
$205,277 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
51%
1 (25 bps)
35%
2 (50 bps)
16%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
3%
4 (100 bps)
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
<1%
0 (0 bps) 51%
1 (25 bps) 35%
2 (50 bps) 16%
3回（75ベーシスポイント） 2.8%
$205,277 Vol.
$205,277 Vol.
2026/12/31
0 (0 bps)
$79,825 Vol.
51%
1 (25 bps)
$28,752 Vol.
35%
2 (50 bps)
$52,564 Vol.
16%
3回（75ベーシスポイント）
$22,243 Vol.
3%
4 (100 bps)
$11,259 Vol.
<1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$10,633 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders assign the highest implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 at 50.5%, driven by the current policy stance and recent economic releases showing inflation moderating toward target levels alongside resilient but not overheating labor market conditions. The 34.5% odds for one 25-basis-point hike and 15.5% for two underscore limited expectations for further tightening, as forward-looking projections from the Fed's dot plot and Treasury yield curves price in a cautious approach. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and inflation data releases, which could adjust these market-implied odds based on new macroeconomic signals.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
マーケット開始日： Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
音量
$205,277終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Traders assign the highest implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 at 50.5%, driven by the current policy stance and recent economic releases showing inflation moderating toward target levels alongside resilient but not overheating labor market conditions. The 34.5% odds for one 25-basis-point hike and 15.5% for two underscore limited expectations for further tightening, as forward-looking projections from the Fed's dot plot and Treasury yield curves price in a cautious approach. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and inflation data releases, which could adjust these market-implied odds based on new macroeconomic signals.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
音量
$205,277終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest implied probability to zero Federal Reserve rate hikes in 2026 at 50.5%, driven by the current policy stance and recent economic releases showing inflation moderating toward target levels alongside resilient but not overheating labor market conditions. The 34.5% odds for one 25-basis-point hike and 15.5% for two underscore limited expectations for further tightening, as forward-looking projections from the Fed's dot plot and Treasury yield curves price in a cautious approach. Key upcoming catalysts include the next FOMC meetings and inflation data releases, which could adjust these market-implied odds based on new macroeconomic signals.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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